Tue, Mar 27, 2001 page17

• Tech guru praises fundamentals

  OUTLOOK The boom-bust cycle of technology stocks may be due to human fickleness, and the sector offers `tremendous' opportunities, according to one analyst

  • By Tsering Namgyal / STAFF REPORTER
  • • 
    • 
    • 

  A leading technology pundit believes that the "high-tech hype" -- fueled mainly by the financial markets -- has not hindered the fundamentals of the technology sector.

  "It is all about human fickleness," said Michael Dertouzos, director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science, referring to the boom-bust pattern of technology stocks. "Otherwise, the technology sector is marching along nicely."

  While he can't predict the timing of a recovery in the technology sector, he said the "fundamentals are there" and the growth opportunities for the technology sector are tremendous.

  "People hyped too much about these activities, and now we are paying for it," said the Greece-born scientist, who has headed the MIT Computer Lab since 1974.

  The idea of the "New Economy" -- which posits that efficiency gains derived from technology investment can help an economy grow perpetually with minimal inflation -- is another victim of the financial market's exaggeration, he said.

  "It is nonsense," remarked Dertouzos, who has among others, authored the best-selling What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives.

  Indeed, he is interested in the long-term development of technology. One of his latest ventures is in human-centered computers.

  "I am trying to start a movement about human centered computers -- so far, so good," he said. "It is moving, I want machines and computers to help human beings."

  MIT is building a US$50 million "human-centered" project called Oxygen, in which Taiwanese firms such as Acer Inc (宏電) and Delta Electronics Inc (台達電子) are also taking part. The new system will allow human beings to talk to computers -- eventually leading to computers without keyboards.

  In terms of growth in the so-called information marketplace, he said, "we are barely scratching the surface." The biggest growth will come from work performed at an office -- which is 60 percent of the US' GNP, 70 percent of France's, 60 percent of Japan's and about 50 percent of Taiwan's.

  Office work in the knowledge economy adds up to around US$12 trillion, which is about half of the total economies of the rich world, he said.

  And as the Internet renders geography irrelevant, part of this business can flow over the information marketplace. "I estimate one-third to 40 percent," he said.

  But an Internet connection is the key. Currently just 300 million people are connected worldwide, or 5 percent of the world's population. "So we have a long way to go," he said.

  Countries such as India have around 50 million skilled workers, who can do office work without going through retraining. These people could quadruple the GNP of India, he said.

  While Dertouzos is here to speak about the knowledge-based economy, he is unusually realistic about its prospects. "[A] knowledge economy is exactly the same economy, we have, with some changes," he said. "Capital needed is smaller, location is not that important because natural resources are not[important] ? and labor is just as important if not more important, because it is moving up the ladder."

  For Taiwan, he said that migration to countries with cheaper labor could do Taiwan no harm. "Taiwan's problem is that it is rich," he said. "And now the people who are poor are going to do the technology work for you ? it is time for other people to get richer."

  But he said Taiwan can play a very important role in the software industry, not just building the hardware but "building the first layer of software which goes on the top of it."
• Most Popular

  • 1

    Kevin de Bruyne bids Manchester City farewell

  • 2

    Napoli bag 2nd Serie A title in 3 years

  • 3

    Taiwanese duo knocked out of Malaysia Masters

  • 4

    Cannes Critics’ Week honors ‘Left-Handed Girl’

  • 5

    Taiwan in Time: Adjusting internal borders during the Qing Dynasty