Asia’s aviation sector is hurting from a sharp descent in passenger numbers but the full impact of a deepening global financial crisis is not likely to be felt until next year, analysts said.
Small carriers will be particularly vulnerable as people curtail travel plans, they added, predicting some airlines will not make it through.
“The biggest challenges right now are weakening passenger demand, particularly for first and business class travel, and continuing uncertainty about the global economic outlook,” said Andrew Herdman, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.
“The next 12 to 18 months will be extremely difficult times for airlines and some won’t survive the current crisis,” said Herdman, whose association represents 17 airlines in the region.
Shukor Yusof, an aviation analyst with credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s, said he expects some airlines to defer aircraft orders or return leased planes as they reduce routes and flight frequencies.
“The weakest ones will not be able to maintain the business,” he said.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said passenger volumes for Asia Pacific carriers dropped 6.8 percent last month, much sharper than the average 2.9 percent decline worldwide.
Asian airlines also carried 10.6 percent less cargo last month, worse than the drop in Europe and North America, as trade volumes fell sharply, IATA said.
“The deterioration in traffic is alarmingly fast-paced and widespread,” Giovanni Bisignani, IATA director-general, said in a statement.
“We have not seen such a decline in passenger traffic since SARS in 2003,” he added, referring to the health scare that grounded travelers in Asia.
Analysts fear that unlike during the SARS period, which lasted for a few months, the current crisis will last for a year or more.
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