Just weeks ago, the holiday shopping season seemed headed for disaster. But in the waning hours before Christmas, US retailers got their wish -- a last-minute surge of shopping that helped meet their modest sales goals, according to data released late on Monday by research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp.
And with post-Christmas shopping to come, some malls and stores were downright optimistic.
While consumers jammed stores at the start of the season in search of discounts and hot items such as Nintendo Co's Wii game console, a challenging economy prompted them to hold out until the end for bigger discounts.
An extra full weekend before Christmas also caused shoppers to procrastinate. In fact, Christmas Eve is expected to be a bigger shopping day than in past years because many employers gave workers the day off, with the holiday falling yesterday.
"I'm trying to get some deals, seeing what they got out. The sales are better later on. And the stores aren't so packed right now," said Tina Fields, who was at the Circle Center Mall in Indianapolis early on Monday morning. Her best bargain was a shirt from Aeropostale Inc she bought for US$5. Others like Alex Allen of Boston had postponed shopping because of lack of time.
"I've been working a lot," said Allen, who took advantage of the 7am opening at a local Target Corp store to get toys for his three grandchildren before the largest crowds came later in the day.
The spree defied fears that a deepening housing slump, escalating credit crisis and higher gas and food prices would turn shoppers into Grinches -- even in the end. Meanwhile, with the season plagued by a slew of Chinese-made toy recalls that began in the summer, there were concerns that shoppers would boycott those products. That did not happen either.
Still, financial concerns clearly affected how consumers behaved throughout the season, forcing more to trade down to discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc, according to Fred Crawford, managing director at restructuring firm Alix Partners. That trend hurt midprice apparel department stores such as Macy's Inc and J.C. Penney Co, which have been aggressive with discounts and other come-ons. Ultra luxury stores are expected to fare well, Crawford said.
Toy sales are expected, at best, to match business from a year ago.
"This year, all I'm shopping for are the kids -- no adults," said Chevy Edwards of Raleigh, North Carolina, who was picking through discounted children's clothing at a local J.C. Penney store. "I just need to cut down on bills."
Those stores that did not meet their pre-Christmas goals are now even more dependent on the post-holiday season, which is becoming more important with the increasing popularity of gift cards. Card sales are expected to hit US$26.3 billion in the November-December period, up 42 percent from two years ago, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp, which tracks total sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, the week ended Dec. 31 now accounts for about 16 percent of holiday sales. Stores do not record the card sales until shoppers redeem them.
ShopperTrak said late on Monday that total sales on Saturday reached US$9.36 billion, up a robust 7.6 percent from US$8.7 billion on the same day a year ago. That surge will put stores on track to at least meet its forecast of a 3.6 percent sales gain for the season, according to ShopperTrak.
For the Friday through Sunday period, total retail sales soared 18.7 percent from the year-earlier period, though the increase was inflated because Christmas Eve fell on a Sunday a year ago, according to ShopperTrak. Dollar figures were not available for this past weekend.
Scott Krugman, a spokesman at NRF, noted that the season is turning out as expected: The final days before Christmas and the week after Christmas "determine the holiday season."
He expects total holiday sales will meet NRF's growth forecast of 4 percent. That is still below the 4.6 percent growth last year and the 4.8 percent average over the last decade.
The figure excludes business at auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants. The results also exclude online sales, which according to research firm comScore Inc were up 19 percent for the season overall. That's in line with its 20 percent forecast.
"Overall, we will pull off a pretty decent performance," said Michael Niemira, chief economist, who is sticking with his December forecast for a slim 1.5 percent gain in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year. That would mean same-stores sales in the November-December period would be up 2.5 percent from a year ago, though still below the 2.9 percent gain seen last year.
A clearer picture of how the holiday season fared won't be known until as late as Jan. 10, when the US retailers report their final December same-store sales figures.
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