Faced with a spreading mortgage crisis, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third time and hint that even more rate cuts could be forthcoming.
That is the view of private economists, who believe that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke clearly signaled this outcome in a speech last month in which he said that the latest bout of financial market turbulence raised greater risks for the economy.
Most economists are expecting a quarter-point cut in the federal funds rate at yesterday's meeting, which will be the Fed's last rate-setting discussion this year. That would push the federal funds rate down 4.25 percent and send banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, down to 7.25 percent, the lowest level in two years.
The Fed started cutting rates in September with a half-point move and then reduced the funds rate by a quarter-point at its Oct. 31 meeting. The central bank was trying to make sure that a severe slump in housing, spreading mortgage defaults and financial market turbulence which hit with force in August did not derail the economy.
In its October announcement, the Fed said that its two rate cuts might well be all that would be needed to make sure the country was not pushed into a recession.
But that view has undergone a dramatic about-face in the six weeks since that time, reflecting worsening conditions in financial markets and continued sharp declines in housing as lenders tighten standards in response to rising mortgage defaults.
Many analysts say this quarter and the early part of next year will represent the period of maximum danger for a possible recession.
"I think a full blown recession can be avoided but just barely," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors. He said the Fed would follow up its expected December rate cut with three more reductions at its first three meetings next year.
For all of next year, a forecasting panel of the Securities Industry and Financial Market Markets Association said Monday it believed overall economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, would come in at an anemic 2.1 percent as housing construction and sales continue to fall for most of the year.
‘NO SECURITY RISK’: The Railway Bureau reassured the public that the technicians’ activities were limited to technical guidance and did not involve sensitive systems The Railway Bureau yesterday said it had invited eight Chinese technicians to assist with an airport MRT construction project. The bureau issued the confirmation after an Internet user said Chinese nationals had entered the construction zone of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport’s Terminal 3 project. They asked why “individuals from an enemy state” were allowed access to such a major national infrastructure project, which raised serious concerns over Taiwan’s industrial safety, sensitive systems and information security. The bureau’s Northern Region Engineering Branch Office said subcontractor Taiwan Handle Industrial Co (台灣手把工業) of the Taoyuan airport MRT’s “Contract No. CU05 Project A14 Station Civil, MEP &
The National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology yesterday showcased its locally developed variants of the Vision 60 robotic patrol dog, which it plans to deploy on the nation’s outlying territories in the South China Sea. The variants were produced under the Joint Lab project — created by the institute and domestic companies — and assembled with domestically produced motors, lenses and artificial intelligence (AI) systems alongside licensed tech from the US, Missile and Rocket Systems Research Division deputy director Jen Kuo-kang (任國光) told the media event at a military base in Taipei’s Dazhi (大直) area. Taiwan has built up its strengths
TIT-FOR-TAT: The US allegedly revoked the visa of a Chinese national working at Xinhua News Agency in the US in response to Beijing’s expulsion of Vivian Wang The Presidential Office yesterday condemned China for expelling a New York Times correspondent from Beijing following the newspaper’s interview with President William Lai (賴清德), saying the move highlighted Beijing’s suppression of press freedom and its threat to international news media. Taiwan has noted a series of recent incidents in which Beijing used similar tactics to “threaten and pressure international media outlets and journalists,” Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo (郭雅慧) said in a statement. “This concerns not only press freedom and freedom of expression, but also the safety of journalists, and Taiwan and relevant partners are paying close attention to the situation,” she
NOT IMMEDIATE: Taiwan has a chance to appeal the proposed 10 percent tariff before it starts, while other countries face a 12.5 percent tariff from the trade office Taiwan is among 60 economies determined by the US to have failed to impose or enforce a ban on the importation of goods produced with forced labor, according to a notice released on Tuesday by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), which proposed imposing an additional 10 percent or more tariff on them. The USTR in a statement said that following an investigation, it had determined under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 that the failure of the 60 economies to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor is
RSS