Print

Mail

wiki links

This week will determine US market's path: analysts

If last week was Wall Street's big dive, this week will be where it tries to figure out how deep the water is.

Stocks are in for a shaky ride, now that the past five sessions have erased all of this year's gains and then some. Investors in the coming days will be grasping at any and all signals, both domestic and foreign, to see if the market can find a foothold.

Most market watchers now agree that last week's plunge doesn't signal disaster.

The stock market, which pushed the Dow to 31 record highs since early last October, had been climbing at a pace that was arguably more extraordinary than the depth of last Tuesday's drop.

DROP WAS ANTICIPATED

Chatter about a big correction had been circulating the floors of stock exchanges for months -- it just came as a shock that so much of the correction happened in a single day.

What the sages are split over is whether stocks have hit a short-term dip or entered a bear market, so they'll be closely watching this week's economic data.

Many say there's no reason that stocks shouldn't resume their trek into record territory in the coming months, given that little has changed fundamentally in terms of the average consumer, corporate earnings, manufacturing activity or inflation.

But others argue that stocks had inflated way too much given the torpidity of many areas of the economy, and that there is still more air to be let out.

The Dow Jones industrials are down 3.3 percent on the year, the Standard & Poor's 500 index is 4.4 percent lower, and the NASDAQ is down 5.9 percent.

KEY FIGURES

If the US Labor Department's employment data on Friday shows stability in US jobs -- previously a big market driver, as it suggests American consumers will keep spending money -- the stock market has a better chance of regaining its footing.

At the end of last week, the market was expecting last month's non-farm payrolls growth to slip to 100,000 from 111,000 in January.

Last month's unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.6 percent; and hourly earnings to inch up 0.3 percent, more than January's 0.2 percent.

Other reports, including a snapshot of the US' service economy and the US trade balance, will also be closely watched.

No matter where the data falls, however, Wall Street is anticipating choppiness this week as some investors flee from stocks to the traditionally safer Treasury market, while others scoop up bargains.
This story has been viewed 1196 times.