Thailand's economic growth could slow to its worst rate in five years as investor confidence sags and exports are hit by a strong baht, analysts say.
The Bank of Thailand did not release key economic indicators as expected last week, saying the figures were delayed due to a new accounting system, but analysts don't need the bank to tell them the signs are not good.
The sudden resignation of finance minister Pridiyathorn Devakula last Wednesday and the government's apparent struggle to find a successor only deepened uncertainties about the direction of Thailand's economy five months after a bloodless coup.
Pridiyathorn has not been mourned by investors, who were alarmed by a series of sharp policy changes including tough capital controls and an overhaul of a law governing foreign investments.
The capital controls have largely been removed, but not before they battered the stock market and dealt a blow to investor confidence -- neither of which has fully recovered.
Sentiment sank further after Bangkok was rocked by deadly bombs on New Year's Eve, followed by warnings from the government that more attacks were possible.
The Kasikorn Research Center said those factors contributed to its estimates that economic growth this year could slip below 4 percent, compared to last year's 5 percent growth in GDP.
That compared with expected growth of 7.7 percent this year in Vietnam, 5.4 percent in Malaysia and 5.9 percent in Indonesia, said Pimonwan Mahujchariyavong, the center's head of macro-economic research, citing the latest forecasts by the IMF.
"Thailand's economic growth this year could be the lowest since 2002," she said.
"Consumption and private investment have been hit hard by economic uncertainties and public disorder, including the bomb threats. All this has led to a lack of confidence, which needs to be restored to push the economy back on track," she added.
Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at Phatra Securities, said confidence would remain low until new elections, which have been promised for later this year.
Phatra has revised down its growth forecast for this year from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent.
The government's projects GDP will grow by 4.5 percent, still one of the slowest rates in the region.
"January indicators showed that domestic demand sank further, with the first contraction of the central bank's investment index in five years. Consumption growth is almost non-existent," Phatra said in a report issued last week.
"Economic recovery will not become apparent until the end of the year," the report said.
Especially worrying for Thailand was a slowdown in export growth.
Exports account for 60 percent of the Thai economy, but are growing at a weaker pace than last year due to a global economy slowdown and the strong Thai baht.
"We expect exports will grow by 10 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared to 17.9 percent growth in the same period of last year," said Aat Pisanwanich, head of Bangkok University's international trade studies center.
Aat said the main reason was the strong appreciation of the baht, which made Thai goods more expensive overseas.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique