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Thailand economic growth expected to reach five-year low

Thailand's economic growth could slow to its worst rate in five years as investor confidence sags and exports are hit by a strong baht, analysts say.

The Bank of Thailand did not release key economic indicators as expected last week, saying the figures were delayed due to a new accounting system, but analysts don't need the bank to tell them the signs are not good.

The sudden resignation of finance minister Pridiyathorn Devakula last Wednesday and the government's apparent struggle to find a successor only deepened uncertainties about the direction of Thailand's economy five months after a bloodless coup.

Pridiyathorn has not been mourned by investors, who were alarmed by a series of sharp policy changes including tough capital controls and an overhaul of a law governing foreign investments.

The capital controls have largely been removed, but not before they battered the stock market and dealt a blow to investor confidence -- neither of which has fully recovered.

Sentiment sank further after Bangkok was rocked by deadly bombs on New Year's Eve, followed by warnings from the government that more attacks were possible.

The Kasikorn Research Center said those factors contributed to its estimates that economic growth this year could slip below 4 percent, compared to last year's 5 percent growth in GDP.

That compared with expected growth of 7.7 percent this year in Vietnam, 5.4 percent in Malaysia and 5.9 percent in Indonesia, said Pimonwan Mahujchariyavong, the center's head of macro-economic research, citing the latest forecasts by the IMF.

"Thailand's economic growth this year could be the lowest since 2002," she said.

"Consumption and private investment have been hit hard by economic uncertainties and public disorder, including the bomb threats. All this has led to a lack of confidence, which needs to be restored to push the economy back on track," she added.

Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at Phatra Securities, said confidence would remain low until new elections, which have been promised for later this year.

Phatra has revised down its growth forecast for this year from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent.

The government's projects GDP will grow by 4.5 percent, still one of the slowest rates in the region.

"January indicators showed that domestic demand sank further, with the first contraction of the central bank's investment index in five years. Consumption growth is almost non-existent," Phatra said in a report issued last week.

"Economic recovery will not become apparent until the end of the year," the report said.

Especially worrying for Thailand was a slowdown in export growth.

Exports account for 60 percent of the Thai economy, but are growing at a weaker pace than last year due to a global economy slowdown and the strong Thai baht.

"We expect exports will grow by 10 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared to 17.9 percent growth in the same period of last year," said Aat Pisanwanich, head of Bangkok University's international trade studies center.

Aat said the main reason was the strong appreciation of the baht, which made Thai goods more expensive overseas.
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