For as long as there has been a publishing industry, there have been used books, that supposedly quaint world of polymaths and antiquarians poking about musty, cluttered stores for titles few readers would know.
But a landmark study confirms what publishers, authors and booksellers have believed -- and feared -- since the rise of the Internet: Used books have become a modern powerhouse, driven by high prices for new works and by the convenience of finding any title, new or old, without leaving your home.
According to the Book Industry Study Group (BISG), used book sales topped US$2.2 billion last year, an 11 percent increase over 2003. Much of that growth can be credited to the Internet. While used sales at traditional stores rose a modest 4.6 percent, they jumped 33 percent online, to just over US$600 million.
"I think consumers are increasingly starting to notice that they can get used books in good condition, in a timely manner," said Jeff Hayes, a director at InfoTrends, a market research firm that served as the principal analyst for the BISG study.
More than 111 million used books were purchased last year, representing about one out of every 12 overall book purchases. By the end of the decade, the ratio is expected to rise to one out of 11, a troubling trend when sales for new works are essentially flat; authors and publishers receive no royalties from used buys.
"Obviously, these are not statistics to warm the heart of publishers," Simon & Schuster spokesman Adam Rothberg said.
The BISG, a nonprofit organization supported by publishers, booksellers and others in the industry, reports that price is the greatest appeal for choosing used books over new ones. While hardcovers often cost US$25 and higher, used books purchased last year averaged US$8.12 -- except for text books, which averaged US$42.31.
The study will likely revive the complaints of authors and publishers who say that online retailers are hurting new sales by aggressively promoting used copies.
The industry, indirectly, may even contribute to the problem: Author signings for upcoming releases are a tradition at BookExpo America, publishing's annual convention. But they also lead to a wave of offerings on eBay, publishers say.
"I have made it clear that I do not like the signings at BookExpo. The author should at least make the signature personal, `Dear Jane,' so it's worth less to sell," said Jane Friedman, CEO of HarperCollins.
The BISG survey looks at both education and general markets. The cost of text books has long been a matter of contention and the BISG reports that educational buys totaled an estimated US$1.6 billion -- nearly all through traditional stores -- an increase of 8.5 percent over 2003.
But Hayes was more impressed by the nearly US$600 million -- much of that online -- spent on noneducation books, a 25 percent jump.
"I think you may be seeing consumer behavior changing. It could become like going to the movies: `Do you want to the see the movie in the theater or do you want to wait for the DVD?' The `DVD' is available a lot faster now," he said.
"One of our cautionary tales is what happened in the textbook industry," said Paul Aiken, executive director of the Authors Guild, which represents thousands of published authors.
"Because of used books, educational publishers tried to make up for the loss by raising the prices of new ones and quickly issuing new editions to make old ones obsolete. We don't want to see that cycle again for the nonacademic market," he said.
The size of the used book market has never been calculated before, and the industry study group report represents an unusual cooperative effort among the leading used book retailers. Amazon.com, Alibris.com and eBay are among those who provided precise sales figures, usually the dearest of industry secrets.
The study does not resolve a fundamental dispute over used books: Are they hurting the market for new books, as many publishers and authors believe? Or, as retailers say, do they simply enable customers to acquire books they otherwise wouldn't have purchased?
"My sense is, excluding textbooks, that at least half of used books sales come at the expense of books still in print," Hayes said.
"But there may be an upside, because a consumer might buy a used book by a certain author, and like it enough to buy the author's next book. So at this point, the impact is hard to quantify," he said.
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