If the city's transit workers go on strike today and shut down the bus and subway lines as threatened, just about every aspect of New York's economy would be affected, from florists to restaurants to the major department stores.
The effects could ripple through the national economy, as well, analysts say.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration has estimated that a transit workers' walkout would cost the city US$100 million to US$350 million a day -- a figure that includes police overtime, lost productivity, lost retail sales and taxes.
PHOTO: AFP
On Saturday, negotiators were trying to reach a three-year contract agreement for the 34,000 transit union workers. Transport Workers Union secretary-treasurer Ed Watt said management had pulled three offers off the table and discussions were at a point they should have reached a month ago.
"We think they have gone from not bargaining in good faith to actually showing bad faith in these negotiations," Watt reporters.
Minutes earlier, Metropolitan Transportation Authority spokesman Tom Kelly called talks ``ongoing and productive.''
Even going out for a meal could be affected if the Transport Workers Union and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority fail to reach agreement before their current contract expires at 12:01am New York time today and the union decides to strike.
"Restaurants will move heaven and earth to stay open," said Chuck Hunt, executive vice president of the State Restaurant Association. "But they can't run them without sufficient employees," many of whom are among the transit system's 7.2 million daily riders.
Large corporations can afford to book hotel rooms close to work for commuting employees, but Hunt said that's not likely for restaurants.
And even if restaurant employees can get to work, Hunt said, deliveries of food and everything else would be hampered by increased traffic and restrictions the city plans on vehicles entering Manhattan during rush hours.
That also would be a blow to Dykstra Florists, in the suburb of Chestnut Ridge. ``We have a lot of deliveries in the city during the holidays,'' owner MariEllyn Dykstra said as she prepared for a wedding in Manhattan.
Large department stores in the city would suffer because tourists and suburban residents would stay away, and because they are heavily dependent on holiday sales, said Jay McIntosh, a retail analyst with Ernst & Young.
Businesses in the city might not be alone in suffering.
"Because of New York's pre-eminence in the national and global financial markets and the corporate world, this will be detrimental to businesses throughout the United States," said Anthony Savino, who teaches corporate law at St. John's University.
The increased traffic would lock up highways in the New York area, slowing the flow of goods to other parts of the country, said Bill Joyce, president of the New York State Motor Truck Association.
"New York is pretty strategically located ... and you can't get from the bulk of states to New England without going through New York somewhere. It's a geographic lock," Joyce said.
The financial community would not be as severely affected. The New York Stock Exchange said it had a plan to deal with a strike but wouldn't elaborate.
"Most of the business that we do can be done, and is going to be done, from outside," said Steve Letzler, spokesman for the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., which processes Wall Street trades.
Hotels will likely be booked "whether with tourists or people affected by a transit strike," said Mary Gendron, a spokeswoman for the Hotel Association of New York City.
But other aspects of the tourism trade would suffer because commuters staying in Manhattan would spend far less than tourists.
On Broadway, Christmas and New Year's weeks are normally the two highest-grossing of the year, with 750,000 patrons bringing in US$45 million at the box office, according to the League of American Theatres and Producers. While many Broadway seats are sold in advance, some shows still rely on walk-up sales.
"New York City does not need to have another holiday season disrupted," Savino said.
Businesses had hoped for an improvement over last year, the year of the World Trade Center attacks.
"We know from what happened last year, you can't get to downtown Manhattan unless you can get on the subway," Savino said.
Neither side in the contract negotiations addressed the media Saturday, but MTA president Peter Kalikow joined negotiators.
Bloomberg spokesman Ed Skyler said the mayor had no plans to participate. Last week, union president Roger Toussaint told the mayor to "shut up" after Bloomberg called for heavy fines against the union and workers who strike.
The union is seeking 6 percent annual raises over three years. The MTA, facing a US$1 billion deficit and contemplating a fare increase, is offering no raise the first year and possible raises the following two years tied to productivity increases.
If the union decides to strike it will face legal ramifications. A judge on Friday issued a restraining order reinforcing the state's Taylor Law, which bars strikes by public employees and orders fines of two days' pay for every day on strike. The ruling raised the possibility strikers could also face contempt charges and possibly jail time.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique