Tension over the global economic outlook is rising as experts search for signs of a US recovery, Japan lurches toward recession and Europe gasps for breath.
Analysts say they are nervously looking at their watches as they await signs of the much-heralded US economic recovery, expected to appear in the second half.
Concern was fuelled Wednesday when the US Federal Reserve issued a grim report describing disappointing retail sales and a decline in manufacturing activity in June and July.
"For a person like myself who has been bullish on the second half all year, things are taking longer than I expected," admitted Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
"There is still the expectation that we are going to move forward. But the question is, do we bounce along the bottom longer than we expected?" he said.
Private analysts cut forecasts for third-quarter US GDP growth this week to an annual 1.7 percent from 2.0 percent last month, Blue Chip Economic Indicators said last week. But most economists are relying on the expected boost to consumer spending from the return of US$38 billion in income tax refunds over 10 weeks starting last month.
Naroff said he was concerned an extended US slowdown could aggravate Asian economic problems lingering since the end of the regional crisis that broke in July 1997.
"What worries me is that there are some hidden problems there that could break out if we [the US] do not get going reasonably soon, and reasonably soon is by the end of this year," he said.
"I have more worries about Asia than Europe," he added. "I think Europe may slow, but I do not think we are dealing with a hard landing as far as Europe is concerned."
Japan, the world's second-biggest economy, is lurching toward recession, with many people expecting negative second-quarter growth after a contraction of 0.2 percent in the three months to March.
The IMF executive board issued a cautionary report Friday after an annual review by its staff.
"Directors were concerned that Japan could re-enter a cycle of slowing activity, rising bankruptcies and a deteriorating banking system, which would, in turn, exacerbate the global downturn," the report said.
Japan in the first half of this year had suffered its fastest decline in industrial output since the 1973-1974 oil shock.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique