UN climate negotiations in Madrid were set to conclude yesterday with even the best-case outcome likely to fall well short of what is said to be needed to avert global warming.
As pressure inside and outside the talks mounted, old splits dividing rich and developing nations over who should slash greenhouse gas emissions by how much, and how to pay the bills that climate legislation would require have re-emerged.
Newer fissures between poor nations and emerging giants such as China and India —the world’s No. 1 and No. 4 emitters — might further stymie progress.
Photo: Reuters
To not lose time, the 12-day meeting was moved at the last minute from original host Chile due to social unrest.
However, observers and delegates said that negotiators had largely failed to live up to the conference’s motto: Time for Action.
Not even appearances from environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg could spur countries to boost carbon-cutting pledges that are, taken together, woefully inadequate.
“We are appalled at the state of negotiations,” said Carlos Fuller, lead negotiator for the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS).
“At this stage we are being cornered. We fear having to concede on too many issues that would damage the very integrity of the Paris Agreement,” Fuller said.
The narrow aim of the Madrid negotiations is to finalize the rulebook for the 2015 climate accord, which enjoins nations to limit global temperature rises to “well below” 2°C.
“Raising ambition” on emissions remains the overarching goal in Madrid.
Host nation Spain on Thursday said that rich and developing nations alike were stalling.
“There are two very clear visions,” Spanish Minister for Energy and Climate Change Teresa Ribera told reporters.
“There are those that want to move quicker and those that want to hide behind things which aren’t working, so as not to advance,” Ribera said.
The deadline under the Paris Agreement for revisiting carbon-cutting commitments — known as nationally determined contributions (NDC) — is next year, ahead of the next climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland.
However, Madrid was seen as a crucial launch pad where countries could show their good intentions. Nearly 80 countries have said they intend to do more, but they only represent 10 percent of global emissions.
ABSENTEES
Conspicuously absent are China, India and Brazil, all of whom have indicated they will not follow suit, insisting that first-world emitters step up.
“If my NDCs are already compliant with the requirements of the Paris Agreement, why should I revise it again?” said Ravi Shankar Prasad, India’s lead negotiator.
However, some countries historically aligned with the emerging giants over the course of the 25-year talks broke ranks on Thursday.
“The failure of major emitters — including Australia, the United States, Canada, Russia, India, China, Brazil — to commit to submitting revised NDCs suitable for achieving a 1.5°C world shows a lack of ambition that also undermines ours,” AOSIS said in a statement.
The talks could receive a shot in the arm if the EU formalizes a plan to render the bloc carbon neutral by mid-century.
The UN said this month that for the world to limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions would need to drop by more than 7 percent annually through 2030, requiring nothing less than a restructuring of the global economy.
They are currently rising year-on-year and have grown 4 percent since the Paris Agreement was signed.
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