The number of new corals on the Great Barrier Reef has crashed by 89 percent after climate change-induced mass bleaching in 2016 and 2017.
Scientists have measured how many adult corals survived along the length of the world’s largest reef system and how many new corals they produced last year in the aftermath of severe heat stress and coral mortality.
The results, published in the journal Nature, showed not only a dramatic reduction in new coral recruitment compared with historic levels, but also a change in the types of coral species produced.
The paper’s lead author, coral scientist Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, said that the results paint an uncertain picture for the reef if further bleaching events occur before corals have time to sufficiently recover — which typically takes a decade.
“We’ve told the story of coral dying, we’ve told the story of some being winners and losers. Now we’ve got the next phase where species have a chance to recover,” Hughes said. “But what we’re seeing is that it’s happening a lot slower, because we only have 10 percent of the babies.”
Across the entire reef the scientists measured an 89 percent drop in new corals, but that average includes a small increase in new coral in the southernmost sections of the reef, which were less affected by bleaching.
The amount of baby coral declined by an even higher percentage in the northern sections.
Replenishment of corals around Lizard Island last year dropped 98 percent on what has been seen historically, Hughes said.
It was now faring slightly better, but the rate of new coral growth is only 4 percent, he said.
“We’re not saying it’s a permanent crush, but I’m pretty damn sure it’s going to be slow,” Hughes said.
“The main concern is it won’t be a sustained recovery, because the timeline of it — a decade — is almost certainly going to include one or two future bleaching events,” he added.
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