After a year of record bloodshed, Afghans this year are bracing for an even deadlier year with the threat of a US drawdown and a looming presidential vote likely to fuel violence.
US President Donald Trump’s plan to slash the number of US soldiers in Afghanistan before negotiators have struck a peace deal with the Taliban has crushed hopes among many Afghans for an end to the 17-year conflict.
The news, which the White House has not confirmed, capped an annus horribilis for the war-weary nation, which by some estimates had overtaken Syria as the world’s deadliest conflict zone last year.
Photo: EPA
Ordinary Afghans, who have long borne the brunt of the relentless fighting, told reporters they felt increasingly despondent about the future as the Taliban and the Islamic State group adapt to ramped-up security to carry out almost daily attacks on civilians and security forces.
“It is getting worse every day,” said electrical engineering student Mohammad Hussain in Kabul, one of the deadliest places in the country for civilians. “The security we had four or five years back was better than now. Even when we don’t have attacks in Kabul, we are waiting for something to happen.”
Zabihullah Shirzad, who owns a garbage collecting company in the Afghan capital, said he could not remember a bloodier year than last year and predicted that this year would be even deadlier.
“We will see more killing and bloodshed,” the 42 year old said.
“I am not optimistic about the peace talks,” he said.
Their gloomy comments reflect the findings of a Gallup poll published in October, which showed an unprecedented level of pessimism among Afghans.
An Asia Foundation study last month showed that more than 60 percent of Afghans thought the nation was moving in the wrong direction — unchanged from a year ago.
Several key indicators show Afghan security locked in a downward spiral, underscoring their negativity.
Civilian deaths hit a record high in the first half of the year, while the Taliban are slaughtering Afghan forces in greater numbers than ever before.
This year was also marked by some of the deadliest suicide attacks since the start of the war in 2001, including an ambulance bomb blast that targeted a crowded street in Kabul last January, killing more than 100 people and wounding hundreds more.
The bloodshed was exacerbated by Trump’s more aggressive strategy for Afghanistan, which he reluctantly announced in August last year, putting thousands more US boots on the ground and giving its air units greater leeway to go after the Taliban and the Islamic State group.
One estimate puts the number of conflict-related deaths at more than 40,000 last year — almost equal to the combined total for Syria and Yemen — according to data compiled by the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.
Afghanistan also took the unenviable title of deadliest country in the world for journalists, with 15 media workers killed, including Agence France-Presse chief photographer Shah Marai and driver Mohammad Akhtar.
Adding to the misery was the worst drought in recent history, which forced more than 250,000 people to abandon their homes, overwhelming humanitarian agencies as they struggled to provide enough food and shelter.
Thousands of displaced families have set up makeshift tents on the edge of cities, and some are even selling their young daughters into marriage to repay debt or buy food.
“It was a very bad year — the situation has not improved at all,” Afghanistan Analysts Network codirector Thomas Ruttig said.
Some observers saw positive signs that, if the circumstances are right, could translate into good news this year.
An unprecedented three-day ceasefire in June was widely celebrated by Afghans taking selfies and sharing ice cream with Taliban fighters, seemingly underscoring the desire for peace on both sides.
The insurgents’ apparent willingness to meet with US officials as part of a push for peace talks in recent months could also bode well for a deal, said Lotfullah Najafizada, director of Afghanistan’s largest private broadcaster Tolo News.
“I think Afghanistan will pass 2019 with some success. I hope it will be a historic year,” Najafizada said.
However, slashing US troop numbers — which many fear would be a harbinger for a full withdrawal — before any deal is struck could trigger a civil war “with a regional dimension,” Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies director-general Davood Moradian said.
Washington should put Afghanistan’s need for peace ahead of its own desire to pull out troops and save money, Ruttig said.
“They are as much a part of the problem as they could be the solution,” he said, describing US policy in Afghanistan as “dysfunctional.”
Another spoiler this year could be Afghanistan’s presidential election, originally scheduled for April 20, but now likely to be pushed back to the summer.
The vote, which Afghan President Ashraf Ghani plans to contest, could unleash a similar wave of violence that marred October’s shambolic and bloody parliamentary election.
However, after so many years of war, Afghans are “more resilient” and the country would survive, Moradian said.
“Many Afghans have learned to live with the chronic pain of war,” he said.
“That pain does not stop them pursuing a normal life,” he said.
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese