Frequent breakdowns of advanced uranium enrichment devices have inadvertently helped Iran comply with restrictions in the international agreement curbing its nuclear program, according to a new report by a Washington-based think tank.
Iranian compliance is also due to tougher policing by US President Donald Trump’s administration of the 2015 pact to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, the Institute for Science and International Security said in a report due yesterday.
“Iran can be expected to continue to push the deal’s limits, commit violations and seek interpretations that are unfounded,” the report said. “One should expect many struggles to keep Iran within the nuclear limits for the duration of the deal.”
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For those reasons and because Tehran is unlikely ever to build a financially viable uranium enrichment plant, an expansion of Iran’s program would either be a “colossal waste of money ... or the basis of a nuclear weapons program, which would not care about costs,” the report said.
Washington and its negotiating partners in the agreement should find a way to make the deal’s restrictions permanent or “severely” extend their expiration times, it said.
Under the deal between Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the US, Tehran agreed to restrict its nuclear program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions that had crippled its economy.
The report comes as Trump weighs whether to certify to the US Congress that Iran is complying with the agreement.
He has until Oct. 16 to make that decision.
Decertifying Iran could lead Congress to reimpose US sanctions on Iran, threatening to collapse the deal and intensify tension in the Middle East.
Supporters of the deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, insist that strong international monitoring will prevent Iran from developing nuclear bombs.
Iran has denied that it is seeking nuclear weapons.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors the pact, has found no “material breaches” by Iran, a judgement with which Washington has concurred.
Tehran has exceeded some deal restrictions, such as a limit on its heavy water stockpile, used in nuclear reactors, the institute said in a report in November last year.
However, the country either rectified some infractions or won exemptions — while former US president Barack Obama was in office — before the pact took effect in January last year.
In its new report, the institute listed other alleged Iran compliance issues, including changes to the design of a heavy water reactor that can produce plutonium, another weapons fuel.
Iran’s improved compliance this year in part has been “unintentional or accidental” because advanced uranium enrichment devices called centrifuges have broken during testing more often than expected, according to the think tank report.
The enrichment procedure produces low-enriched uranium for use in nuclear power plants, but it also can make highly enriched weapons-grade uranium.
By last month, Iran had tested eight advanced IR-8 centrifuges, although the deal limits it to one at most, the report said, adding that Iran also operated between 13 and 15 interconnected IR-6 machines, which the deal restricts to 10.
However, according to the report, all but one of the IR-8s and many of the IR-6s broke because carbon fiber components failed.
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