China’s rubber-stamp legislature is to convene this weekend with the script focused on containing worrisome economic risks while Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) consolidates power ahead of a pivotal Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meeting later this year.
The gathering of 3,000 Chinese National People’s Congress (NPC) delegates at Beijing’s cavernous Great Hall of the People is staged annually by the party to portray a facade of popular rule.
It typically has little actual bearing on politics, but will be scrutinized this year for clues ahead of this autumn’s far more consequential CCP Congress, an event held only every five years.
Photo: EPA
Since taking over in 2012 Xi has consolidated power more rapidly than any Chinese leader in decades.
He is expected to unveil a leadership shuffle at the autumn gathering amid speculation it could indicate he intends to stay on beyond the traditional 10-year term.
“This is a watershed year,” China politics analyst Willy Lam (林和立), of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said of the political machinations.
The NPC curtain is to rise tomorrow with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s (李克強) annual report, which is to include this year’s growth target, a closely watched indication of the leadership’s mood on the economy.
The CCP stakes its ruling legitimacy on the ability to sustain growth, but the economy last year expanded 6.7 percent, its slowest pace in a quarter of a century.
Analysts expect Li to aim for growth of 6.5 to 7 percent, same as the target he set last year.
Slowing growth complicates government efforts to shift from an economic model based on debt-fueled investment and exports toward a consumer-driven one, while also trimming bloated industrial sectors.
Other risks include a slumping currency, massive capital flight by Chinese enterprises seeking better returns abroad, and fears of a housing bubble and bad-loan crisis.
Caution and control are expected to dominate NPC discussions.
“We expect the meeting this year to confirm a shift in policy toward reining in risks and away from supporting short-run growth,” Capital Economics said in a report.
In perhaps a preview of NPC discourse, China’s Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing (郭樹清) on Thursday warned of threats posed by debt-strapped state-owned firms, inflated real-estate markets and massive unregulated lending.
He promised to end regulatory “chaos.”
Expected to run for 10 days, the NPC starts with a splash of color as delegates from China’s dozens of ethnic minorities arrive in traditional dress alongside military officers in full uniform — images meant to reinforce national unity.
Facing pressure over severe smog, authorities have shut down factories and other polluting activities in northern China to clear the air for the legislative show.
However, official forecasts nonetheless said the capital will be shrouded in smog this weekend.
As with each year, security has been ramped up in Beijing and elsewhere to prevent political or social unrest disrupting the session.
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