A year since fighting began in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin might not have emerged the winner in his showdown with the West, but he has not lost either, analysts say.
By supporting Ukrainian separatists, he took a huge risk, but it largely paid off as it allowed him to punish Kiev’s pro-Western authorities for seeking to turn their back on Russia and stand up to the West, they said.
Most importantly for the Kremlin, the annexation of Crimea and support for fellow Russian speakers in Ukraine’s east have given a huge boost to Putin’s popularity ratings at home.
Photo: EPA
According to a study conducted in February by independent polling group the Levada Center, the number of people who want Putin to seek a fourth term in 2018 has more than doubled to 57 percent since December 2013.
“What Putin wanted was clear a year ago — he wanted a blocking stake in Ukraine or — the next best option — a manageable conflict,” Higher School of Economics professor Nikolai Petrov said. “To a large degree, the Kremlin has achieved what it wanted.”
Ukraine marks the first anniversary of the start of the conflict in a hugely demoralized state with its economy shattered and NATO membership a very distant, if not impossible, prospect.
If Putin gambled that the West would not move to burn all of its bridges with Russia nor engage militarily, he was right.
While Washington has been vocal in its assertion that Moscow has been sending troops over the border to buttress Ukrainian separatists, it has held off on supplying Kiev with lethal weapons over fears of escalation.
Economy-wise, the US and EU have forged a united front, slapping Russia with several rounds of sanctions, but decided against radical measures such as cutting Moscow off from the SWIFT banking system.
After a shock slump late last year, the Russian ruble has recently rebounded following a lull in fighting in Ukraine and the steadying of oil prices. Economists have forecast stagnation over the next few years, but people predicting imminent financial collapse have been contradicted.
In a sign that Putin might be getting ready to break out of Western isolation, he is considering whether to travel to New York to speak at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly this fall, the Kremlin said. It would be his first UN visit over the past 10 years.
Such a move would have seemed unimaginable several months ago, when Putin appeared crushed under the weight of international condemnation after Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 came down over rebel-held Ukraine, killing all 298 on board.
The West and Kiev claim that Moscow-backed rebels shot the aircraft down by mistake, with a missile provided by Russia.
In a bid to counter raging accusations that he was personally guilty, an ashen-faced Putin recorded an unprecedented nighttime video address, urging the West and Kiev not to exploit the tragedy for political gains.
However, as a shaky truce appears to be taking hold in Ukraine, Russia has apparently managed to put the worst of the fallout behind it.
That might explain Putin’s jokey mood at the triumphant celebrations marking one year since the takeover of Crimea last month when he said Russia “will overcome the difficulties that we have so easily created for ourselves.”
To a large extent, Putin has been lucky, after rushing into the confrontation with the West without a well-thought-out plan, observers said.
“There was a set of tasks and Napoleon’s famous maxim, ‘On s’engage et puis on voit’ [Let’s jump into the fray and then figure out what to do next],” think tank the Political Expert Group head Konstantin Kalachev said.
Even if his tactics have often defied comprehension, Putin has made his message abundantly clear: The West should understand that a new, post-Soviet Russia is a force to be reckoned with.
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