Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned the US that failure to agree a nuclear deal would likely herald the political demise of pragmatist Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Iranian officials said, raising the stakes as the decade-old stand-off nears its endgame.
Zarif pressed the concern with US Secretary of State John Kerry at meetings in recent weeks, according to three senior Iranian officials, who said Iran had also raised the issue with other Western powers.
Zarif’s warning has not been previously reported.
Western officials said that the move may be just a negotiating tactic to persuade them to give more ground, but said they shared the view that Rouhani’s political clout would be heavily damaged by the failure of talks.
The warning that a breakdown in talks would empower Iran’s conservative hardliners comes as the 12-year-old stand-off reaches a crucial phase, with a deadline of next month to reach a political agreement ahead of a final deal by June 30.
The agreement aims to end sanctions in exchange for curbs on Tehran’s nuclear program, though hard-to-bridge differences remain, particularly on the timing of the relief on economic sanctions and the duration of the deal.
Both US President Barack Obama and Rouhani, who Iranian officials say has staked his career on the deal, are facing stiff domestic opposition to an agreement, narrowing the scope for compromise.
A senior US official denied that any such warnings had been received from the Iranians.
However, the Iranian officials insisted that Zarif had raised the concern with Kerry, most recently on Friday, when they talked for over an hour on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
“As Rouhani is on the frontline, naturally he will be more harmed,” said one of the officials, who has direct knowledge of Zarif’s discussions with Kerry.
Other Western officials said the Iranian delegation had raised the same concern in talks recently.
If the talks fail, Rouhani would likely be sidelined and his influence dramatically reduced, giving hardliners like Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps an upper hand, Iranian officials and Western analysts say.
A comprehensive nuclear deal is seen as crucial to reducing the risk of a wider Middle East war, at a time when Iran is deeply involved in conflicts in Syria and Iraq.
After nearly a year of talks, negotiators failed for the second time in November last year to meet a self-imposed deadline for an agreement.
Iran rejects allegations it is developing the capability to produce atomic weapons, but it has refused to halt uranium enrichment and other sensitive atomic work, leading to US, EU and UN sanctions that have hobbled its economy.
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