The Afghan election crisis and unraveling of Iraq have US lawmakers and regional allies thinking US President Barack Obama should rethink his decision to withdraw virtually all US troops from Afghanistan by the close of 2016.
The White House says Afghanistan is a different situation from Iraq, mired in sectarian violence since shortly after US troops left, and the drawdown decision a done deal.
Some lawmakers say they are uncomfortable with Obama’s plan, which responds to the US public’s war fatigue and his desire to be credited with getting the US out of two conflicts. Ten senators, Republicans and Democrats, raised the drawdown issue at a congressional hearing on Thursday.
They argued that it is too risky to pull US troops out so quickly, especially with the Afghan presidential election in the balance. They do not want to see Afghanistan go the way of Iraq, and they fear that the Afghan security force, while making substantial gains, will not be ready for solo duty by the end of 2016.
Under Obama’s plan, announced in May before Sunni militants seized control of much of Iraq, about 20,200 US troops will leave Afghanistan during the next five months, dropping the US force to 9,800 by year’s end. That number would be cut in half by the end of next year, with only about 1,000 left in Kabul after the end of 2016.
US Marine General Joseph Dunford, the top US commander in Afghanistan, testified this week before the US Senate Armed Services Committee. He spoke highly of the 352,000-strong Afghan security force that assumed responsibility for the country in June last year and lauded them for keeping violence down during the recent election.
“We had over 300 campaign events involving thousands of people, some as large as 20,000,” Dunford said. “The Afghan forces secured all of those campaign events.”
The US withdrawal plan is based on being able to fix the Afghan security force’s shortcomings by the end of 2016.
Dunford described gaps in planning, programming, budgeting, delivery of spare parts, fuel payment systems — things the US military takes for granted. Afghanistan also needs to brush up its intelligence operation and develop its nascent air force.
Dunford laid out his best-case scenario under the current plan was that the Afghan presidential election is resolved; Afghan security forces continue to improve and are sustainable by 2017 so a small US presence inside the US embassy in Kabul — a “security cooperation office” — is sufficient; shortfalls in the Afghan forces are addressed; the US and other donor nations continue to fund the Afghan government, security forces and development projects.; and Afghan-Pakistani relations improve and the two nations have adequate capabilities — and the will — to counter terrorism.
His worst-case scenario is that the election remains unresolved; Afghan-Pakistan relations sour and both countries fall short of battling extremist militants; and al-Qaeda or other militant groups regain their footing in the border region and plot attacks against the US.
US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a critic of Obama’s plan, said trying to meet the goals for a successful outcome was like “kicking a 65-yard field goal into the wind.”
“There’s a disaster in the making to our homeland and to losing all the gains we fought for inside of Afghanistan by drawing down too quick and not being able to help the Afghans in a reasonable fashion,” Graham said.
Earlier this month, US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan James Dobbins told the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that despite declining security in Iraq, the president was not “presently disposed to reconsider the decision.”
“Afghanistan isn’t Iraq,” Dobbins said. “In Iraq, the people didn’t want us and not a single Iraqi politician was prepared to advocate our staying. In Afghanistan, the people overwhelmingly want us to stay, and every single contender in the presidential election said they would sign the bilateral security agreement” with the US.
“In Iraq, they could get along without us, at least temporarily, because they had plenty of money. In Afghanistan they can’t possibly get along without us,” he said.
US Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, the foreign relations committee chairman, said it was still hard not to draw the comparison.
“When the administration announced plans to completely draw down forces from Afghanistan by 2016, I was concerned about the plan, and I still have concerns,” Menendez said.
Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, the top Republican on the foreign relations committee, said he was happy that Obama had decided to leave 9,800 troops in Afghanistan next year. However, Corker was against putting a two-year timeline on a virtual complete withdrawal.
“It’s amazing. When we talk to people within the [US] administration that know things like this — and are pretty tuned in — they say, ‘Hey guys, don’t worry about this, this is just a plan, we’re going to reassess.’ But you’re telling me, as a special envoy, this is concrete — right now this is not just a plan, but this is the way it’s going to be. I think this reflects the president’s intentions,” Dobbins said.
He said that other countries in the region support the continuation of a US and NATO military mission in Afghanistan for at least several more years.
“Pakistan, Uzbekistan and China all fear Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for their own hostile militant groups,” he said. “India fears Afghanistan again becoming a training ground for terrorist groups targeting them. Russia remains concerned about the flow of narcotics. Iran and Pakistan fear new floods of refugees.”
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese