Sanctions and diplomacy may yet persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program, as its leaders have shown a rational “cost-benefit approach” in their calculations, senior US intelligence officials said.
The officials suggested on Tuesday that military conflict with Iran was not inevitable, despite soaring tensions with Tehran and a war of nerves over the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade choke point.
“We judge Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran,” National Intelligence Director James Clapper told the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
“Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige, and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program,” he said.
He said economic sanctions were taking a toll and described a worsening rift between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The overriding goal of Iran’s leaders remained “regime survival,” and it was too early to say how economic strains triggered by tougher sanctions would affect their decisions, CIA Director David Petraeus told the same hearing.
With a run on the Iranian currency, inflationary pressures and unemployment, the sanctions were “biting” more now than ever before, Petraeus said.
“I think what we have to see now is how does that play out. What is the level of popular discontent inside Iran? Does that influence the strategic decision-making of the supreme leader and the regime?” he said.
The comments by senior intelligence officials echoed US President Barack Obama’s assessment in his State of the Union address last week, when he said “a peaceful resolution” remains possible with Iran.
Meanwhile, the head of the intelligence committee, US Senator Dianne Feinstein, revealed that Israel’s spy chief Tamir Pardo had visited Washington last week, amid speculation over a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Such trips are usually secret, but Feinstein mentioned Pardo’s visit at the televised hearing as she discussed how Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
When asked by Feinstein about the likelihood of preemptive Israeli military action, Clapper said he would prefer to answer in a closed-door session, but said sanctions might force Iran to change course.
“Our hope is that the sanctions ... will have the effect of inducing a change in Iranian policy toward their apparent pursuit of a nuclear capability,” he said. “Obviously, this is a very sensitive issue right now.”
The US intelligence chiefs made clear their view of Iran’s nuclear program had not changed since an assessment last year by all 16 spy agencies that concluded Iran’s leaders are divided over whether to build nuclear weapons and have yet to take a decision to press ahead.
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese
RIVER TRAGEDY: Local fishers and residents helped rescue people after the vessel capsized, while motorbike taxis evacuated some of the injured At least 58 people going to a funeral died after their overloaded river boat capsized in the Central African Republic’s (CAR) capital, Bangui, the head of civil protection said on Saturday. “We were able to extract 58 lifeless bodies,” Thomas Djimasse told Radio Guira. “We don’t know the total number of people who are underwater. According to witnesses and videos on social media, the wooden boat was carrying more than 300 people — some standing and others perched on wooden structures — when it sank on the Mpoko River on Friday. The vessel was heading to the funeral of a village chief in