Foreign troops fighting in Afghanistan continue to pay a high toll, with more than 560 killed last year, the second highest number in the 10-year war against the Taliban-led insurgency.
Commanders from the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) say violence is declining following the US military surge which saw an extra 33,000 troops on the ground.
However, the UN says violence is up, while recent mass casualty strikes by the Taliban on civilians and coalition troops have fuelled analyst predictions that more bloodshed is likely as NATO hands control for security to Afghan forces.
The death toll of coalition service personnel last year was 566 and includes at least 417 from the US and 45 from Britain, according to an AFP tally based on figures from independent Web site icasualties.org.
The number is down from a wartime high of 711 in 2010, after the start of the surge, but up from 521 in 2009.
The toll last year was added to on the final day of the year when ISAF announced that a service member had died after a non-battle related incident in the south.
The fatality count has been worsened by several devastating attacks, including the car bombing of an ISAF convoy in Kabul in October which killed 17 and the shooting down of a helicopter in Wardak, south of the capital, in August in which 30 US troops perished.
However, it is Afghan civilians who have paid the highest price.
The deadliest attack saw at least 80 people killed in a shrine bombing in Kabul on the Shiite holy day of Ashura early last month.
The surge troops — ordered in by US President Barack Obama two years ago to turn the tide in the war — have now begun to pull out, with 10,000 already gone and the rest leaving by next autumn.
Other foreign forces are also scaling down their missions ahead of a 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of all NATO combat forces. One Western military official said some units have already been told not to carry out offensive operations.
Since the US-led invasion toppled the Taliban from power in 2001, a total of 2,847 foreign troops have died in the conflict.
“We’ve seen a considerable reduction in enemy attacks [this year]. That’s a result of successes on the battle field and a reduction of their capability to attack us,” ISAF spokesman Brigadier General Carsten Jacobson said.
While fewer ISAF troops on the ground in the coming years may mean fewer coalition deaths, the civilian toll will not necessarily fall.
The UN said the number of civilians killed in violence in Afghanistan rose by 15 percent in the first six months of this year to 1,462. A full-year report is due out later this month.
Insurgents are blamed for 80 percent of the deaths, which are mostly caused by homemade bombs (IED).
NATO, which says enemy attacks are down 8 percent, only includes “executed attacks” and not IED finds or instances where the Taliban intimidate local people.
Haroun Mir, an analyst at Afghanistan’s Center for Research and Policy Studies, said that while the Taliban were no longer engaging ISAF troops head-on, factions within the insurgency were intent on targeting civilians.
“The Taliban are deliberately targeting civilians to spread fear among the people. They want to show that despite the surge they are still active, that they have the capacity to disrupt life, especially in the cities,” he said.
The international community is looking for a political solution to the war and moves have been made to establish a Taliban office, possibly in Qatar, to enable peace talks.
Mir said although some members of the Taliban would be willing to negotiate, others, such as those based over the border in Pakistan, are likely to become increasingly isolated and unleash more violence.
“We expect more terrorist attacks and more political assassinations during the phase of transition. These radical groups will do everything possible, especially after 2014, to weaken the government,” he said.
As security is handed over the Afghan National Security Forces, which now number more than 300,000, can also expect to take on more casualties.
Since March 21, the beginning of the Afghan year, 1,400 police, 520 soldiers and 4,275 insurgents have been killed in the conflict, according to Afghan government figures.
However, there is some optimism that the reduction in the foreign presence might in itself lead to a fall in violence.
“The hope is that as foreign troops hand security to Afghan forces fewer local people will become radicalized,” Fabrizio Foschini of the Afghanistan Analysts Network said.
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese