Heads of government attending Asian summits hoping to fathom China’s foreign policy mood swings might spare a thought for Beijing’s own leaders, who fear their expanding influence is attracting a new circle of potential foes, not fans.
China’s diplomacy throughout this year has stressed the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s desire to set aside recent regional feuds as it focuses on a leadership hand-over next year.
Beijing has sought to rein in tensions with Vietnam and the Philippines over the South China Sea and avoided ire over Japan’s recent arrest of a Chinese boat captain in Japanese waters. Crucially, Beijing and Washington have worked to contain rows over China’s currency, trade, security, North Korea and Taiwan.
Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) meetings with US President Barack Obama and other leaders at the APEC summit in Hawaii this weekend should reinforce that steadying message, as will Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s (溫家寶) talks in Bali at the East Asia Summit on Saturday, which Obama is also due to attend.
But summit smiles only go so far.
None of China’s festering territorial disputes are near resolution. Its growing economic and military reach continues to concern many parts of Asia and despite vows of mutual goodwill, Beijing remains wary of US intentions and alliances, including Obama’s push for a new regional free trade pact.
“China feels put upon — that even as it brings trade and prosperity, its regional security environment is less secure,” said Sun Xuefeng (孫學峰), a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “There’s a sense of bafflement about how to respond.”
That sense of insecurity — and the resulting debate — comes across in the statement and positions of Chinese officials, state-run newspapers and think tanks.
One theme is that the US is bent on “encircling” China, an idea reflected in recent commentaries in state-run newspapers suggesting that US pressure was behind Myanmar’s decision to suspend work on a controversial Chinese-funded dam.
China has seen the former Burma as a bulwark on it southwest border and a conduit for trade and energy imports.
“[China] fears that some countries are pulling in major powers from the outside to counterbalance China, or that some neighbors are teaming up against China,” a team of researchers from a Chinese state think tank said in a recent study of Beijing’s regional dilemmas.
However, that fear does not mean that Beijing has a clear set of policies.
“China’s main foreign policy problem is not toughness or assertiveness. It is really a lack of policy,” said Zheng Wang (王正), an associate professor at Seton Hall University in New Jersey who studies Chinese foreign policy.
“At the same time, there are widespread conspiracy theories in China that the change in the regional environment is a direct result of the US policy of re-engagement in Asia,” Wang wrote in e-mailed answers to questions.
“If the rising suspicion over US policies and intentions in China’s own regional environment cannot be cleared, there will be a major misjudgment that could affect not only the bilateral relations, but also global stability,” he said.
In Washington and allied Asian capitals, policymakers have long debated how to deal with China’s growing influence.
However, the same is true in Beijing. China’s rise, especially since the financial crisis, has triggered discussion about how Beijing should wield its new influence. Amplifying that uncertainty is Beijing’s realization that economic ties across Asia do not easily convert into political trust, Sun said.
On the contrary, China’s expanding exports have become a source of complaint in some nearby countries, joining worries about Beijing’s military modernization, said Sun, the author of a recently published Chinese-language book, The Dilemma of China’s Rise.
In Beijing think tanks, hawkish “realists” who want China to act tougher compete against “liberals” who say Beijing’s interests are best served by working through multilateral channels,
Zhao Kejin (趙可金), a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University explained in a recent talk.
In this debate “the most important question is how to deal with neighboring countries,” Zhao said.
Even as Beijing leaders have sought to damp down regional tensions, media commentaries and harderline quarters have warned that China remains beset by potential strategic traps.
Last month, for example, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense published on its Web site an essay warning that Japan and India were entering into disputes over the South China Sea, where Beijing claims most of the potentially energy-rich ocean floor.
“The South China Sea presents far greater strategic needs for Japan than it does for China,” said the essay by Zhang Wenmu (張文木), a professor of strategic studies at the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, who is well-known for his hawkish views. “Only major strategic needs can produce structural strategic conflict.”
For now at least, China’s leaders appear keen to avoid serious flare-ups with neighbors, and indeed have faced criticism at home for “being too soft over the South China Sea dispute,” Wang said.
“Strong statements are often used by Beijing to compensate for the resulting weakness of its actual policies,” he added.
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