After skilful consolidation of his growing power, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is poised for a second term in office, with observers predicting that could herald a further assault on freedoms.
Dung is expected to be chosen for another five years tomorrow, in a symbolic vote by the National Assembly that will cement his place as the country’s most powerful politician.
The 61-year-old, a former deputy in the security ministry, has presided over a worsening rights record and activists predict the one-party state will try to further tighten its grip on freedoms in the face of worries about Arab Spring-style unrest and economic discontent.
Both the US and Britain said the Internet and free expression were increasingly stifled last year, as the Vietnamese Communist Party prepared for its January Congress, which determined the top leadership positions that are to be confirmed next week.
Dung is now in a strong position after he was re-elected to the Politburo with support from security and defense delegates that helped him fend off a leadership challenge, said an Asian diplomat on condition of anonymity.
US-based Human Rights Watch deputy Asia director Phil Robertson said the security ministry had been “empowered.”
“It reflects, I think, the level of challenges that the Party thinks it’s facing,” he added.
Congress upped the number of security ministry officers in the Politburo, which sets government policy, from one to two.
Vietnamese Minister of Public Security General Le Hong Anh is expected to move up the hierarchy, becoming the party’s de facto second-in-command.
Anh’s deputy, Lieutenant General Tran Dai Quang, is widely touted to take over the ministry controlling the secret police, as well as the regular force.
Quang is “a hardliner” who will not tolerate online political activists, said a blogger, who asked for anonymity.
Two small protests against China’s alleged aggression in the South China Sea were forcibly dispersed this month, despite the authorities’ decision to allow similar protests earlier.
State run media have carried almost no news about the rallies or the police action against them, but independent blogs have widely covered the events.
There is no way the government can completely muzzle the Web chatter but it does not want it to translate into real action in the street, the diplomat said, predicting it would be “harder” for dissidents in the future.
Economic uncertainty has increased the pressure on the Vietnamese authorities.
Long focused on growth, the government this year shifted towards stabilizing an economy facing a complicated mix of challenges including a struggling currency and trade deficit as well as increasingly high prices.
Vietnam’s inflation is among the highest in the world and even official media have said the number of strikes is soaring as workers struggle to cope.
A credit squeeze aimed at taming accelerating prices has ramped up the cost of borrowing, hitting small businesses.
Public distress over the economy “is bubbling to the surface,” the diplomat said. “The prime minister and the minister of public security will not want any voice of dissent coming out in this critical period.”
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