King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, famously urged his sons to “keep Yemen weak.” In recent years, that deathbed injunction has been overtaken by fear of instability and violence in the country’s unruly neighbor.
Alarm about terrorism, secessionist movements, tribal warfare and economic collapse has seen the Saudis intervene increasingly in Yemen’s crises. The weekend’s development, which saw an injured Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh fly to Riyadh for treatment, put them in pole position to influence the outcome of the drama in Sana’a. Most experts believe they will not let him go back.
Until early this year, Saudi Arabia avoided putting pressure on Saleh. However, as the crisis escalated in March, Riyadh threw its weight behind a Gulf Cooperation Council initiative to ease the veteran leader out of office.
The Saudis wield a lot of influence in Yemen. Riyadh has paid tribal leaders millions of dollars every year to keep them compliant and it joined in the military campaign against Houthi rebels in the north in 2009. Saudi Arabia also accused Iran of backing the Houthis in an attempt to foment sectarian tensions in the heart of the Arabian peninsula.
Like any country, it worries about instability next door. It faces genuine problems involving al-Qaeda, explosives, illegal immigrants and drugs crossing the 1,770km long border — often described as its “soft underbelly.”
There was deep shock in 2009 when a Yemeni suicide bomber nearly managed to kill the Saudi counterterrorism chief in Jeddah.
“For the Saudis, Yemen is not a foreign policy issue, but a security one,” said historian Madawi al-Rasheed, of King’s College London.
In private, the US, Britain and other Western governments have been frustrated.
“The Saudis put a lot of money into Yemen, but like everyone else they have been puzzled about how to handle it,” a former diplomat said. “It has tried to influence events, but didn’t take charge and seemed to lack strategic direction.”
Part of the problem is uncertainty about who has been in charge since Saudi interior minister Prince Naif took over the Yemen “file” from the ailing Saudi Crown Prince Sultan. Saudi King Abdullah, also in poor health, has been accused of sending “mixed messages” to Saleh.
Still, it seems unlikely that the Saudis will try to save the Yemeni president’s skin. The fear in Riyadh has been that Saleh would follow the example of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and use his presidential guards against the people and the army, transforming a revolt against the regime into a civil war.
“My sense is that the Saudis have had enough of him,” another Western Yemen-watcher said. “Their patience has finally run out.”
Saudi Arabia’s goal in Yemen is to keep Yemen weak, but not too weak, said the US academic Gregory Johnsen — in line with Abdul Aziz’s instructions.
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