Across the Pacific Ocean from Japan’s devastation, the waves roll in peacefully as day-trippers stroll the wet sand while snacking on ice cream and caramel apples.
However, geologists say that 100km into the grayish water lies the Cascadia fault, which generates earthquakes as powerful as Japan’s magnitude 9.0 earthquake about every 240 years, and the last one was 311 years ago.
Many policymakers agree the US Pacific Northwest is nowhere near prepared for a major earthquake and a resulting tsunami. However, in a country with a deep aversion to taxes, there is a lively debate on how much money is worth paying.
A decade ago, the superintendent of the Seaside, Oregon, school district commissioned a geologist who delivered dire news — tsunamis of 25m to 30m could strike the town, which was twice as high as was previously thought.
The superintendent, Doug Dougherty, proposed to rebuild four at-risk schools at an elevation above 30m. However, the process has dragged on, with the district negotiating with the multinational company that owns the high land.
“It’s very expensive. We’re anticipating as much as US$100 million, and we know that there are tremendous similarities between the Cascadia subduction zone and Japan,” Dougherty said.
Recent studies have found not only that Oregon is overdue for a mega-quake, but that more than half of the state’s more than 1,350 schools would crumble.
Near Seaside in Cannon Beach, Oregon, former mayor Jay Raskin hopes to construct the first tsunami shelter in the US, which could temporarily house 1,500 people, or most of the local population.
Raskin, an architect, grew interested in disaster preparations after living through the 1989 San Francisco earthquake which killed 67 people. California, with more frequent earthquakes, is better prepared than the Pacific Northwest, he said.
Even though thousands died in Japan, Raskin said that the country’s tsunami shelters worked when people were able to reach them, likely lessening the death toll.
Studying examples overseas, Raskin said that the tsunami shelter needed to be as sturdy as possible — both in effect and in appearance. In a crisis, many people would avoid the shelter if it looks damaged, he said.
“We were realizing that we had a one-size-fits-all idea about tsunami evacuation,” he said. “You ought to look at the fact that there might be older people, there might be injured people, there might be people from out of town who have no idea where the high ground is.”
However, the shelter has failed to find the US$4 million in funding. As a first-of-a-kind project, it fell under no US federal agency’s budget and the US political mood has now shifted away from directly financing projects, he said.
“In the current congressional stalemate, it’s gone,” said Raskin, who hopes to start over and seek a federal agency’s support.
Oregon had hoped to complete seismic safety standards in schools and other crowded public buildings by 2032. The Pacific Coast already has a tsunami alert system and coastal schools closed following the March 11 earthquake in Japan.
Oregon Senate President Peter Courtney has called for the state to turn attention urgently to earthquake protection, including upgrading infrastructure in the wake of Japan’s tragedy.
However, Oregon Senator Jeff Kruse, a Republican, said that the state also needed to look at other priorities, including building a new bridge across the Columbia River connecting Portland, the largest city, and Washington State.
“The question is, if there’s a 9 [magnitude earthquake], virtually every bridge on the coast is gone, so do we restructure our entire bridge system or do something that is a known quantity?” he asked.
At a time of limited resources, Oregon should look first to ensuring adequate helicopters, emergency personnel and warning systems, before a costly refitting of all buildings, Kruse said.
Voters in Portland will have their say on May 17 in a city referendum on whether to authorize US$548 million in bonds to support schools, including rebuilding eight of them to meet seismic standards.
Of the nearly 100 schools in Portland, only two were built with earthquake codes in mind, although most have undergone some work for seismic safety, Portland District spokesman Matt Shelby said.
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