Re-galvanized opposition to nuclear power and a bitter national row on immigration threaten to derail German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s attempts to give her fractious government a fresh start one year after her re-election.
In addition, with six crucial state polls looming next year, Merkel is under the gun to get her center-right alliance on track.
On Sept. 27 last year Merkel, 56, scraped to victory with her conservative Christian Union bloc, allowing her to dump her unloved coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), and link up with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).
However, after 11 years dreaming of reuniting in government, the two sides have been at constant loggerheads over core issues, allowing the opposition SPD and the resurgent Greens to capture a clear ruling majority in opinion polls.
Merkel prefers to remain above the fray but analysts say she needs to reassert her authority if she hopes to see out her four-year term.
“She has got to lead, she has got to take some decisions, and she must force the smaller parties in her coalition to toe the line if she wants to survive,” said Manfred Guellner, head of the Forsa independent polling institute.
Bitter infighting over tax breaks, healthcare reform, cuts to social welfare benefits and conscription have all taken a heavy toll on voter support.
In another headache for Merkel, tens of thousands of nuclear energy opponents took to Berlin’s streets last weekend to protest plans to extend the life of reactors well beyond the planned shut-off date of around 2020.
Organizers vow to keep up the pressure.
Merkel has also struggled to regain control of a fiery debate on immigration, sparked by a polemical, best-selling new book by a central banker and politician blasting the integration of Muslims.
Merkel also surprised many when she threw her support behind a massive, unpopular rail project in Stuttgart, southwestern Germany that has drawn weekly mass protests.
The project is set to become a major issue in a March vote in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where Merkel’s conservatives could lose after half a century in power.
‘In both cases, [the demonstrators are] not just the usual suspects, and a chancellor or party leader who does not take that seriously ... will not have her job for long,” the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily wrote.
Guellner said a free-fall in support for the FDP, and its sharp-tongued leader, German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor Guido Westerwelle, was a major problem for Merkel.
“He is the weakest foreign minister in postwar history. He doesn’t make mistakes but he doesn’t do anything right, he is divisive on domestic issues and he doesn’t have the stature for the job,” Guellner said. “At the same time, the FDP has not paid attention to what voters really want: decent schools; simplification of the tax system; integration of immigrants; cutting red tape.”
By any measure, it has been a rough second term for Merkel.
After taking office in October, the coalition was soon wracked by back-biting, feeding doubts that the shy pastor’s daughter was unable to control her own ministers.
April’s Greek credit crisis which imperiled the euro drew what many called foot-dragging by Merkel.
May brought an election fiasco in the most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, which cost Merkel’s alliance its majority in the federal upper house, constricting her ability to pass legislation.
The same month saw the shock resignation of German president Horst Koehler over an interview gaffe, amid an exodus of experienced conservatives.
Since the summer break, Merkel has thrown herself into work, promising an “autumn of decision-making” in a tough speech to parliament in which she claimed credit for a robust economic recovery and lower joblessness.
However, the influential weekly Die Zeit warned the damage will be difficult to repair.
“Not even the economic upturn, that old miracle-worker, can bring back the peace between the people and their government,” it wrote.
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