Each time US or NATO forces accidentally kill Afghan civilians, insurgents and their sympathizers typically retaliate with six additional assaults on foreign forces over the next six weeks, researchers using newly declassified NATO data concluded.
A new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research supports the prevailing view of counterinsurgency strategists who believe civilian casualties help Taliban recruiting drives. The study found that attacks on foreign forces increase slightly even when the insurgents are to blame for the deaths of non-combatants.
“Our results show that if counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan wish to minimize insurgent recruitment, they must minimize harm to civilians despite the greater risk this entails,” said the study, which was to be released yesterday through the Washington-based New America Foundation.
The principle that protecting civilians is the key to sidelining and ultimately defeating an insurgency is the heart of the strategy outlined by General David Petraeus in Iraq and adapted for Afghanistan.
As applied by the former US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, the strategy includes strict limits on US air strikes and firepower.
Petraeus, who took over from McChrystal last month, is tweaking those rules, but has said he will not lift them outright. Petraeus told Congress last month that he remains convinced that heavy-handed tactics do more long-term harm than good.
Petraeus published a new manifesto on counterinsurgency on Sunday that drives home that point.
“The people are the center of gravity,” Petraeus wrote in a memo to his troops. “Only by providing them security and earning their trust and confidence can the Afghan government and ISAF [International Security Assistance Force] prevail.”
The new independent study uses freshly declassified data about civilian deaths and injuries and “significant actions” by insurgents in Afghanistan. It analyzes attacks and deaths by district across the country.
The study is titled “The effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq,” but focuses mainly on Afghanistan, where the Taliban-led insurgency has surged back from near extinction and now controls key territory.
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