Victory for Bronislaw Komorowski in Poland’s snap presidential election today could end a policy logjam, boosting stalled economic reforms, but also test his governing party’s mettle, analysts say.
Most recent opinion polls have shown Komorowski is the favorite to win the run-off race against conservative former Polish prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The election was forced by the April air-crash death of the latter’s identical twin and close political ally, conservative president Lech Kaczynski.
The liberal Civic Platform Party had been eying the chance to oust Lech Kaczynski in an election originally due this autumn, with speaker of parliament Komorowski tapped to stand and tipped to foil his bid for a new five-year term.
Lech Kaczynski was elected in 2005. His twin was prime minister from 2006 to 2007.
After their Law and Justice Party lost office to Civic Platform in the 2007 general election, Kaczynski’s presidential veto became a tool to hobble the liberals. He used it 18 times, according to the presidential office.
“Of course there will be no excuse not to push through reforms when Komorowski comes in,” Danske Bank economist Lars Christensen said.
Christensen said that would mean a challenge for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a close ally of Komorowski.
“His main excuse, the former president, will no longer be there,” he said.
“The key task the government faces now is to ensure a reduction in the budget deficit, while at the same time making room for expenditure ready for the European Football Championship in 2012,” he added.
Poland is scrambling to get up to scratch for the soccer showcase, which it will co-host with neighbor Ukraine.
PriceWaterhouseCoopers economist Witold Orlowski agreed with the analysis.
“In the coming months it could be easier for the Civic Platform to govern if Mr Kaczynski were president, because it would give them an excuse for not implementing the necessary reforms,” Orlowski said.
Local elections are due in Poland this fall and a parliamentary ballot in the fall of next year.
The thorniest routes to keeping spending in check include reforming the pension system — notably special rules for farmers — and overhauling the health sector.
“Reforming public finances, taxation and the health sector is a priority,” Civic Platform lawmaker Pawel Olszewski said, adding the reforms should be carried out before the next general election.“They are indispensable and I’m convinced it’s possible.”
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