Fifteen years ago, Ismail Serageldin, an Egyptian who was vice-president of the World Bank, shook politicians by predicting that the wars of the 21st century would be fought not over oil or land, but water.
So far he has been proven wrong, but escalating demand for water to grow food and provide drinking water for burgeoning urban populations has raised political tensions between many countries.
In Asia, there are disagreements over the right to dam shared rivers. India and Pakistan are in semi-permanent dispute over hydro-power on the river Indus. China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh all spar over the rivers rising in the Himalayas and which flow through neighboring countries, providing water for nearly 500 million people on the way.
Tensions run high between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over the Amu Daria and Syr Daria rivers. Argentina and Uruguay have taken their dispute over the river Plate to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, while Mexico and the US argue over rights on the Rio Grande and Colorado.
Last month, Baghdad demanded that Syria cease pumping water from the Tigris. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Palestine and Israel, and Iraq and Iran, row over water supplies from the Shatt al-Arab waterway and Turkey’s dams.
In Africa, the Chobe, a tributary of the Zambezi, has caused tension between Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, while there have been incidents between Mauritania and Senegal over control of the Senegal. Shares of the Niger, Volta and Zambezi are all disputed.
According to the UN, there are more than 250 internationally shared rivers covering nearly half the total land surface of the earth, as well as innumerable shared aquifers. About 300 potential conflicts around the world have been identified, but history suggests very few if any are expected to develop into armed conflict. In the last century, only seven minor skirmishes over water were documented.
However, nearly all the world’s major rivers are expected to come under increased pressure to provide farming, industry and drinking water for the 3 billion extra people expected to be born before the world’s population starts to drop. By 2025, says the UN, nearly one in three people will live in countries that are affected by water shortages. These already affect 450 million people in 29 countries, and according to the World Water Forum, tensions over water rights and allocations are expected to mount.
Last year, the Pentagon predicted that water disputes would rise up the agenda in global politics in the coming years. It argued that water was central to border disputes. Conflicts in Chad, Yemen and Somalia, it said, have all been linked to water scarcity.
Archeologists in Peru on Thursday said they found the 5,000-year-old remains of a noblewoman at the sacred city of Caral, revealing the important role played by women in the oldest center of civilization in the Americas. “What has been discovered corresponds to a woman who apparently had elevated status, an elite woman,” archeologist David Palomino said. The mummy was found in Aspero, a sacred site within the city of Caral that was a garbage dump for more than 30 years until becoming an archeological site in the 1990s. Palomino said the carefully preserved remains, dating to 3,000BC, contained skin, part of the
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