Conservative Party leader David Cameron risks jeopardizing the monarch’s political impartiality if he challenges a convention that would allow British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to remain prime minister in the event of a hung parliament, constitutional experts said.
Amid signs that the Conservative leader might declare himself the winner of the election, even if Brown decides to remain in office to try to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, advisers to Whitehall say the Tories will need to tread with care.
The Conservatives fear a repeat of February 1974, when the then Conservative leader Ted Heath remained in office for four days after losing the election as he tried to negotiate a deal with the Liberals.
Some Tories say that Cameron is prepared to declare himself the winner if he comes first but fails to secure an overall parliamentary majority. They have been studying the experience of Alex Salmond, the Scottish Nationalist (SNP) first minister in Scotland, who runs a minority administration.
Salmond flew into Edinburgh by helicopter after the 2007 election to declare himself the winner, after the SNP won one more seat than Labour.
Lord Armstrong of Ilminster, who was Heath’s principal private secretary during the 1974 negotiations, defended the convention.
“The prime minister is the prime minister until he resigns,” he said. “It is his duty not to put the Queen into a position where she might be appearing to take political decisions. If and when he does come to resign, it is his responsibility to recommend to the Queen whom she should send for as her new prime minister. I don’t see how you protect the Queen from becoming over involved in political decisions unless you can do it like that.”
Senior Tory shadow ministers have indicated that they are unhappy with a new rule which will delay the return of parliament by a week. They say this could check any momentum Cameron might have from an election win as Brown is given extra time to negotiate a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Opinion polls indicate that the Tories are on course to come first in the election, but fall short of an overall majority. There is even the possibility that Labour could perform poorly in the national vote but come first in the share of seats or win enough seats to allow Brown to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Armstrong’s comments were echoed by Peter Hennessy, the Attlee professor of contemporary British history at Queen Mary University of London.
He said: “Do they want to put a danger of the monarchy being politicized? It is not a good idea to appear to tangle with the palace, is it, and put the Queen in any danger of appearing to be politicized? Clegg and Cameron have had a whinge. It may not seem perfect to them, but I’m afraid that is what the British Constitution is.”
Professor Robert Hazell, director of the constitution unit at University College London, said the convention was not just designed to protect the Queen.
“Yes, it is in order not to leave the Queen in the lurch. But, just as important, it is in order not to leave us in the lurch. What the Queen is there to ensure is stability and continuity. In the old high Tory phrase: The Queen’s business must be carried on. We must always have a government. It isn’t just Brown’s privilege or right to remain in office as the incumbent prime minister. It is actually his duty, because we must always have a government,” he said.
Hazell said it would be “astute political tactics” for Cameron to follow the example of Salmond and his helicopter ride.
“Alex Salmond, in a coup de theatre when the election results were announced, landed in Edinburgh in a helicopter, strode to a podium and declared that the SNP had won. The Scottish press believed him,” Hazell said.
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