As Myanmar gears up for rare elections due next year, eyes are turning to the fate of the country’s ageing military strongman, Than Shwe, and a possible succession, exiled activists say.
Described by critics as reclusive, paranoid and deeply in thrall to astrology, the 76-year-old “Senior General” has ruled the country with an iron grip since 1992, but is now in the twilight of his career.
A new Constitution approved in a widely criticized referendum last year says that the State Peace and Development Council — the junta that Than Shwe heads — must hand over power to a new national assembly after the elections.
Than Shwe may take over the new presidential position provided for by the Constitution to maintain his hold on power, opposition activists living in exile in Thailand said.
But after constantly striving to increase his power, he now faces underlying resentment from within the regime, the activists say.
When he eventually quits, “Than Shwe will make sure his future is safe,” said Naing Aung, secretary general of the Forum for Democracy in Burma.
She added, however: “Than Shwe has only close circles with him. He is an isolated man.”
Aung Naing Oo, a Myanmar political analyst in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, predicted it would be “interesting to see how he leaves politics because he cannot leave right away.”
“If he retains a formal position, it means he is not leaving. If he doesn’t, then he will be protected for quite some time” by keeping his aides close to him, he said.
Than Shwe will be well aware of the fate of several previous leaders since the military took control of Myanmar in 1962.
Ex-dictator Ne Win, who ruled the country between 1962 and 1988, died under house arrest in 2002 and was not granted a state funeral, while several members of his family were sent to jail. The official press hardly mentioned his death.
Than Shwe himself presided over a purge of the military intelligence service that ended with the sentencing of ex-prime minister Khin Nyunt to 44 years’ house arrest in 1994.
“He may not want to retire, but under the Constitution he may have to. He will put someone he really trusts like his son,” said Win Min, an academic at Chiang Mai university and a pro-democracy activist.
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