Tony Blair is expected to bow out of the race to become the EU’s first permanent president by the end of next week if he fails in a last-ditch effort to win the public support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Allies of the former prime minister insisted on Saturday that his bid for the top EU job was still alive and that there remained a “decent chance” of success — despite Gordon Brown’s failure to win any substantial backing for him during informal discussions at a Brussels summit last week.
Hinting that Blair might now broaden his campaign and push for talks, in person, with Merkel and others in a final effort to turn things around, supporters said he had yet to lay out a “detailed case” to EU leaders about how he would approach the job and why his talents were needed.
They claimed that media reports of mass opposition from EU heads of government in Brussels were exaggerated, and that negative comments had come mainly from European lawmakers who would not have a vote on who fills the post.
The strongest attack on Blair’s candidacy was delivered in Brussels by the German head of the socialist group in the European parliament, Martin Schulz. He rounded on Brown on Thursday, saying that Blair had been a grave disappointment as prime minister because he had failed to take the UK into the euro or the Schengen open borders agreement, and had split Europe over Iraq.
A furious Brown responded by telling those gathered, including Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann that they risked “permanent irrelevance” if they rejected Blair and appointed a lesser known figure.
While the Blair camp insists that the real “detailed work of negotiation” on the EU post has yet to begin, they recognize that if Merkel cannot be won round within days, they will have to face reality and pull out before a special EU summit at which the position will be filled, probably on Nov. 10 or Nov. 12.
“Tony would certainly not want the humiliation of rejection when the issue comes to be formally discussed. He will take himself out of the running before then,” an EU socialist source said.
On leaving Brussels, Brown appeared to recognize that other candidates come into play.
“I recognize that there are many candidates who may come forward, some have already indicated their intention to do so, but I do believe that Tony Blair will remain an excellent candidate,” Brown said.
Merkel’s support is seen as key because if Germany swings to Blair, then French President Nicolas Sarkozy would almost certainly follow, as would many smaller member states. For Merkel, however, backing Blair would be high risk in Germany because of strong public opposition to the Iraq War.
On Friday, the German media appeared to gloat over Blair’s inability to win support in Brussels.
The daily Suddeutsche Zeitung commented: “Since Thursday, former British prime minister Blair’s chance of getting the post of the president of the EU council is almost zero.”
Yesterday, the German press hinted Merkel might pick Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende as her candidate, quoting her remark in Brussels that “I can reveal that Jan Peter Balkenende has good German.”
Sarkozy insisted on Friday that there would be a single Franco-German candidate and hinted that it might not be Blair, whom he had backed last year.
“With Chancellor Merkel, we completely agree that we are going to have the same approach, the same vision and support the same candidate when the time comes,” Sarkozy said. “I think it’s very important that France and Germany — on a choice that is important as this one — show their determination to walk hand in hand down this road. The names that first come out of the hat are not necessarily those that are finally chosen.”
Last night there were signs that Wolfgang Schlussel, the center-right former Austrian chancellor, might be gaining ground, while Balkenende was also being talked up by EU sources. Other names still in the race are Luxembourger Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker and former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt.
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