Tens of millions of people could be infected with swine flu in China in the coming months, a health ministry official said yesterday, adding that fatalities would be “unavoidable.”
The world’s most populous nation, at 1.3 billion, has so far reported nearly 7,000 cases of A(H1N1) influenza but no deaths. It plans to launch a nationwide vaccination program soon to prevent mass outbreaks of the virus.
“According to expert estimates, our nation during the autumn season might have several tens of millions infected with A(H1N1),” Liang Wannian (梁萬年), deputy director of the ministry’s health emergency office, told a press conference.
Liang said of that total, “half of them could experience clinical symptoms, several millions will seek medical help and serious cases and fatalities will be unavoidable.”
The spread of A(H1N1) influenza in China has gathered pace as the autumn months approach, Liang said, with more than half of the nearly 7,000 cases detected between Aug. 24 and Sept. 10.
Of those cases, about 95 percent were homegrown, whereas the vast majority of cases reported from June to last month originated abroad, he said.
“The situation we face is not optimistic,” Liang said, noting that the virus had been found in all of China’s 31 provinces and regions.
“We are facing severe challenges in our prevention and control work,” he said.
The WHO said last week that more than 2,800 people had so far died around the globe from swine flu. The virus has been detected in nearly every country.
The UN health body says China will be among the first in the world to launch a mass vaccination program. The government has said it plans to vaccinate 65 million people, or 5 percent of the total population, before the end of the year.
“What we must work to prevent is a peak explosion of infections in a short period of time — if this happens, it will be very dangerous,” Liang said.
“If we see a large number of people infected in a short period of time, then a lot of people are going to seek medical help and our health system will not be able to handle this,” he said.
The State Council, or Cabinet, on Thursday issued new regulations on handling A(H1N1) outbreaks, ordering the ministries of health and education, and the food and drug administration to coordinate prevention and control.
Such efforts will focus on schools as China has witnessed more than 200 “large-scale” outbreaks of swine flu since June, with over 85 percent of them occurring in schools or at school-related activities, Liang said.
The State Food and Drug Administration has granted approval to Beijing-based Sinovac to mass produce its one-dose swine flu vaccine and is considering applications from other manufacturers, agency spokeswoman Yan Jiangying (顏江瑛) said.
The administration is closely monitoring potential side-effects of vaccinations and putting in place a procedure to halt the program should side-effects prove severe or production quality prove faulty, she said.
“We will begin emergency inoculations in an active, stable and orderly manner,” with priority given to certain groups and in accordance with local outbreak conditions, Liang said, noting that vaccinations would be free.
Health Minister Chen Zhu (陳竺) said earlier this week that priority would be given to soldiers, police, children aged five to 19, those with chronic heart and lung diseases, medical workers, quarantine officials, and those working in the railway and aviation sectors.
RSS