A projected landslide victory this weekend for Japan’s opposition party could introduce new uncertainty into a relationship the US has long relied on to anchor its security interests in Northeast Asia.
US President Barack Obama’s administration will be watching closely how the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will govern should it gain power after today’s election.
Opposition leader Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister, has pushed for his country to be more independent from Washington and closer to Asia. The DPJ has questioned a major realignment of US forces in Japan, close ties with the US and continuing Japan’s refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of US forces in Afghanistan.
“As a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of US-led globalism is coming to an end,” Hatoyama wrote this week in the New York Times.
While a DPJ victory could cause new tensions with Washington, it would be unlikely to destroy the alliance forged after World War II. Hatoyama has also said that he would not seek radical change in Japan’s foreign policy, and the US-Japan alliance would “continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.”
“It was one thing for the opposition party to take opportunistic partisan shots at the government for supporting the United States in the war on terror or paying for US bases, but it is quite another to put the alliance at risk when in power,” Michael Green, a White House Asia adviser during the George W. Bush administration, said in an interview posted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, where he is an analyst.
Still, a DPJ victory could cause headaches for the Obama administration as it confronts China’s increasing military presence in the region and a tense nuclear standoff with North Korea.
Green said a DPJ election victory could cause confusion in Washington and Tokyo “as the DPJ decides what it actually stands for in power.”
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