The threat to the US over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, a new intelligence assessment said.
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the US. But those threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaeda and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots, the internal US Homeland Security Threat Assessment for this year to 2013 said.
The al-Qaeda network continues to focus on US attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political “turmoil,” the assessment said.
Earlier this month, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remained “the highest priority at the federal level.”
Speaking to reporters on Dec. 3, Chertoff explained that more people, such as militants, will learn how to make dirty bombs, biological and chemical weapons.
“The other side is going to continue to learn more about doing things,” he said.
Marked “for official use only,” the report did not specify its audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement, intelligence officials and the private sector. When determining threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life, economic and psychological consequences.
Intelligence officials also predicted that in the next five years, militants would try to conduct a destructive biological attack.
Officials were concerned about the possibility of infections to thousands of US citizens, overwhelming regional health care systems.
There could also be dire economic impacts caused by workers’ illnesses and deaths. Officials were most concerned about biological agents stolen from labs or other storage facilities, such as anthrax.
“The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has not abated,” Chertoff said in his year-end address on Dec. 18. “This threat has not evaporated, and we can’t turn the page on it.”
These high-consequence threats are not the only kind of challenges that will confront the US over the next five years.
Militants will continue to try to evade US border security measures and place operatives inside the mainland to carry out attacks, the 38-page assessment said. It also said that they may pose as refugees or asylum seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels such as the visa waiver program, which allows citizens of 34 countries to enter the US without visas.
Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the US illegally. Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the US in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.
Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the US illegally as well.
Officials predicted the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Intelligence officials predicted the pool of radical Islamists within the US would increase over the next five years partly because of the ease of online recruiting means.
Officials foresaw “a wave of young, self-identified Muslim ‘terrorist wannabes’ who aspire to carry out violent acts.”
The US has already seen some examples of these homegrown militants. Recently five Muslim immigrants were convicted of plotting to massacre US soldiers at Fort Dix in a case the government said demonstrated its post-Sept. 11 determination to stop terrorist attacks in the planning stages.
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese
RIVER TRAGEDY: Local fishers and residents helped rescue people after the vessel capsized, while motorbike taxis evacuated some of the injured At least 58 people going to a funeral died after their overloaded river boat capsized in the Central African Republic’s (CAR) capital, Bangui, the head of civil protection said on Saturday. “We were able to extract 58 lifeless bodies,” Thomas Djimasse told Radio Guira. “We don’t know the total number of people who are underwater. According to witnesses and videos on social media, the wooden boat was carrying more than 300 people — some standing and others perched on wooden structures — when it sank on the Mpoko River on Friday. The vessel was heading to the funeral of a village chief in