For the first time polls suggested on Tuesday that the Conservative party could lose the Oct. 14 election, as fears of global economic turmoil struck Canada and sapped the incumbent party’s support.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have led in public opinion throughout the campaign, but a more than 10-point lead over Stephane Dion’s Liberals, their main rivals, narrowed considerably in recent days.
A survey by Harris/Decima released on Tuesday showed Harper’s Conservatives ahead by five percentage points.
The Nanos polling firm found the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie.
If the Conservatives’ slide continues, pollsters say a Liberal government will triumph.
The sudden shift coincides with widespread unease over the worldwide meltdown of financial markets. On Monday the Toronto stock exchange sustained its worst one-day plunge in two decades, forecasting an impending recession.
Opposition parties continue to hammer Harper on his “stay the course” plan, saying he has not done enough to safeguard Canada from the unfolding economic turmoil centered in the US.
“Around the world, the Americans worry, the Europeans worry. Their leaders are trying to find solutions,” said Dion in Vancouver, on Canada’s Pacific coast. “Only Stephen Harper is passive, inactive.”
Harper admitted to a crowd of journalists on Tuesday: “I’ll be the first to admit I’m not the most emotionally expressive guy.”
“But, you know, we understand, and I understand ... that people are pretty shocked by the developments in the stock market,” he said.
“Canadians must be reassured that the government knows where they are going and that’s obviously what we’re trying to communicate to them in this election,” Harper said.
“In the end the government must convince the population not through its emotions, but through its actions, and our actions are intended to protect the economy,” he said.
Pundits have suggested in recent months that Harper called the snap elections to avoid a slowing economy smudging his political ambitions. Canadians would punish the incumbent at the ballot box if they lost their job or savings, observers said.
Early last month, when the election writ was dropped, Canada’s economy had not yet felt the affects of the US crisis on Wall Street, which was beginning to spread to worldwide markets.
Now, a month later, Canadian banks are predicting Canada’s housing market will soon slow, exports to the US will drop off and unemployment will rise, spawning a recession that could last well into next year.
Harper’s “laissez-faire attitude has irked Canadians,” commented Alain Cusson, vice-president of polling firm Harris/Decima.
“They want their government to do something,” he said.
“If the Conservatives’ slide continues in the coming days, we could see a Liberal government in a week,” he said.
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