Top US counterterrorism officials on Monday said al-Qaeda was imploding and that its violent tactics had turned Muslims worldwide against the organization.
“Absolutely, it’s imploding. It’s imploding because it’s not a message that resonates with a lot of Muslims,” said Dell Dailey, the State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism.
Of more concern are organizations like Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas, which combine social services, local governance and national politics with extremist attacks, Undersecretary of State James Glassman said.
“These are models that have a lot more popular appeal than al-Qaeda, which has almost no popular appeal,” he said.
Vastly more Muslims than Westerners are killed by al-Qaeda car and suicide bombs, particularly in Iraq, where local tribes have largely turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq in the last two years.
Extremist violence claimed more than 9,500 civilian victims in Muslim countries last year.
US intelligence agencies caution against predicting al-Qaeda’s demise too soon, however, noting its Pakistan safe haven and the persistent efforts of its affiliates to conduct attacks in North Africa and elsewhere.
US intelligence officials said in July that al-Qaeda leaders learned from Iraq to temper their local activities to ensure continued access and freedom of movement throughout the organization’s safe haven in Pakistan.
Some hardline religious leaders who once wielded significant influence on al-Qaeda have begun to criticize its violence against civilians, Ted Gistaro, the national intelligence officer for transnational threats, said in a speech last month. Gistaro said senior al-Qaeda leaders have devoted nearly half their airtime this year to defending the group’s legitimacy.
Despite these apparent fissures, al-Qaeda continues to pose the most dangerous threat to the US, intelligence officials and reports said. A national intelligence assessment released last year said al-Qaeda had regenerated its leadership and ability to conduct attacks in the ungoverned tribal region of western Pakistan.
Afghanistan has grown increasingly violent because of the close ties and collaboration between the Pakistan tribes, the Taliban and the terrorist organization. Al-Qaeda continues to attract new fighters to fight US forces in Afghanistan, and radical Internet sites that provide religious justification for attacks and violent anti-Western rhetoric are spreading.
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