It’s the nightmare of any foreign policy expert on the former Soviet Union and the long-cherished dream of many local inhabitants of this picturesque corner of the Black Sea coast.
And, to some, the prospect of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula joining Russia now appears a little more plausible following Moscow’s war with Georgia last month and its recognition of two Georgian separatist provinces.
“We’re living in the dream that the Crimea can become Russian again,” said Angelina Mamonchikova, a local activist in Sevastopol, the Soviet-era port in southern Ukraine at the heart of the irredentist quest.
“We have to believe it, otherwise we’d go mad,” said Mamonchikova, whose nails are painted blue, white and red — the colors of the Russian flag — and who took part in a protest this month against the arrival of a US ship.
While the sight of 100 people chanting “Yankee, Go Home!” on the wharf at Sevastopol hardly seems noteworthy, many locals share the anti-Western and pro-Russian views of protesters who often take to the streets.
The Crimea was originally taken over by Russia in the 18th century and then formally handed over to Soviet Ukraine in 1954 by then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev at a time when internal Soviet borders hardly mattered.
Surveys of Crimea’s inhabitants show 58 percent say they have a Russian background, compared with 25 percent Ukrainian and 13 percent Crimean Tatars.
The Kremlin’s justification of military action in Georgia as a way to defend Russian citizens and its subsequent recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have given hope to Russian-speakers in the Crimea, many of whom hold Russian passports.
“A lot of people are rubbing their hands with glee,” said Olexander Formanchuk, a Ukrainian political analyst, while European officials fret that Ukraine could be the next target for intervention by Russia.
Many local residents are also disillusioned with the chaotic political scene in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and the pro-Western government’s desire to join the NATO military alliance, a bid fiercely opposed by Russia.
“What good has Ukraine done for us? Nothing!” said Vadim, a taxi driver in Sevastopol. “On my son’s report card it says ‘ethnic minority language.’ Who do they think they are? It’s they who are the minority here!”
A law enforcement official in Simferopol, a city of some 300,000 people, the biggest in the Crimea, said on condition of anonymity: “The authorities are not doing anything for the Crimea, they couldn’t care less.”
But the prospect of a genuine separatist movement appears far-fetched, observers said. Radicals are weakly represented at local assemblies and pro-Moscow rallies rarely draw more than a few hundred people.
The presence of a large minority of Tatars, an ethnic group that was expelled from the Crimea in Soviet times, also lessens the chances of a Georgia-type scenario because of their strong opposition to Moscow.
Assertions by Ukrainian officials that there has been a “massive” increase in the number of Russian passports given to residents of the Crimea have also been denied as a “provocation” by Russian officials.
That’s little reassurance for Galina Gorbunova, an elderly woman selling guided tours on the wharf at Sevastopol.
“Of course we’re scared there could be a war,” Gorbunova said.
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