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ANALYSIS: VP choices may mean problems as well as gains

When Barack Obama shows up on Saturday in Springfield, Illinois, on his way to the Democratic Convention, he will have his new running mate grinning beside him. But that man or woman is still unknown, even as speculation rises to a fever pitch.

Same with John McCain, just days away from his Republican convention at the beginning of September.

A big reason the jobs are still open: The contenders believed to be still in the running could pose significant risks as well as helping the presidential candidates.

For Obama, for instance, picking an experienced senator like Delaware’s Joe Biden or Indiana’s Evan Bayh would bring expertise to the ticket but would also make it harder for the Illinois senator to emphasize his own signature campaign theme of change.

For McCain, former presidential rival Mitt Romney would bring economic experience and home ties to the battleground state of Michigan. But the millionaire former governor of Massachusetts, who grew up in Michigan, has his detractors, even among Republicans, and McCain’s primary-season attacks on him would provide ammunition for Democrats.

For all the talk, running mates seldom are a factor in November outcomes. A party’s No. 2 has not played a truly key role since John F. Kennedy chose Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

But the selection is the most important decision each candidate makes before formally gaining his party’s nomination, and it could reveal much about his judgment.

“It’s an opportunity for them to show that they know how to do it,” said Paul Light, a professor of government at New York University. “In this regard, a bad choice hurts much more than a good choice helps.”

Obama is believed to have narrowed his list to Biden, Bayh, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is still seen by some Democrats as a possibility — but a longshot one.

Republican McCain, with an additional week or so to decide, is believed to have a short list that includes Romney and Minnesota Govenor Tim Pawlenty. Possibly also in contention: former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential pick in 2000 who now is an independent.

Here is a look at the potential strengths and liabilities of the prospective running mates.

First, the Democrats: Biden, as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would bring a wealth of foreign policy experience, something the first-term Illinois senator clearly lacks. Just this past weekend he was in Georgia at the request of President Mikhail Saakashvili.

He has been in the Senate since 1972, a full 10 years before McCain was first elected to Congress.

But the fact that Obama would turn to Biden in an effort to offset his own foreign-policy inexperience could be seen as a lack of confidence in himself.

Also, Biden, 65, has a spotty political history. He fared poorly as a presidential contender in this year’s Democratic contests.

He has a reputation for verbosity. And he is still dogged by his decision to drop out of the 1988 presidential campaign after he was caught lifting lines from a speech by a British Labor Party leader.

Sebelius, 60, as governor of the traditionally Republican state of Kansas would bring executive experience to the ticket and could help reach out to both moderate Republicans and to those intent on seeing a woman on the ticket.

In Michigan on Tuesday, Sebelius would not say if she expected to be chosen.

“I think a week from tomorrow we will all know,” she said, stating the obvious since the Democratic vice presidential nominee will address the convention next Wednesday evening.

Sebelius spoke on behalf of Obama at a town hall meeting.

Sebelius is the least-known contender among those Obama is believed to be considering. And her presence on the ticket still might not be enough to win over her solidly Republican state and its six electoral votes.

Also, die-hard Clinton supporters might react negatively to Obama’s decision to put a woman on the ticket other than Clinton.

On the Republican side: Romney, 61, who was McCain’s closest competitor in the primaries, would bring to the ticket economic and executive experience that McCain himself doesn’t have.

The former Massachusetts governor was chief executive officer of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. He earned millions as a business consultant and venture capitalist. As head of Bain Capital, he helped launch the Staples office supply chain and buy Domino’s Pizza.

Romney is popular in Utah and Colorado, states with large numbers of residents who, like Romney, are Mormons. His father, George Romney, was governor of Michigan and a Republican presidential contender.

Still, questions remain about Romney’s shifting stance on issues like abortion and gay rights as he abandoned once-moderate politics to court social conservatives.

And neither man appeared especially fond of the other during the campaign.

Romney cast McCain as outside the Republican Party’s conservative mainstream. McCain argued that Romney’s equivocations and reversals indicated a willingness to change positions to fit political goals.
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