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Florida and Michigan are Clinton's last stand

Who knew the treaty of Ghent would factor into this election? The pact that ended the war of 1812 between us Yanks and those sneaky British aggressors kept Michigan as part of the US. And now, Michigan may be poised to decide between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Obama's big win in Mississippi on Tuesday came at a time when the Clinton campaign is trying to soften the media into accepting the idea that she should be the nominee if she's behind in the delegate count but somehow wins the popular vote when the primary ends.

At this point every vote counts. Obama beat her by 97,000 votes in Mississippi. His total popular vote lead is now 700,000. Out of about 26 million votes cast, that is not an insignificant number -- a 2.7 percent lead. In the remaining 10 contests, she will probably be able to bring that down, maybe by as much as 200,000. But unless the bottom really falls out of the Obama campaign, there is almost no way for her to win the popular vote battle. And we already know she will not win the pledged-delegate battle.

This is where Florida and Michigan come in.

Those two states violated Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules by choosing to hold primaries before Feb. 5. The votes took place, but all the contenders agreed not to campaign in those states. In Michigan, Obama even had his name removed from the ballot. Clinton won -- she beat Obama 50 percent to 33 percent in Florida, and in Michigan prevailed over "uncommitted" by 55 percent to 40 percent. But according to DNC rules, the votes didn't count.
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