China's National People's Congress opens this week with the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) anxious to avoid trouble ahead of the Olympics, even as they lay foundations for the next big generational change.
The 3,000-member congress, which convenes for its annual full session from Wednesday, is a vital cog in a political machinery that may wield crushing power, but only as long as society around it is peaceful.
"Especially this year, 2008, with the Olympic Games in Beijing, the priority for the Chinese leadership will still be stability," said Yang Jiang, a China specialist at University of Auckland.
"So I don't expect any substantial political reform or progress this year," he said.
Despite the extreme caution from the Chinese leaders they cannot stop the political calendar. Important changes are coming up and must be dealt with, Olympics or no Olympics.
Most crucially, the fourth generation of leaders around President Hu Jintao (
Nothing seems written in stone yet, but most observers would bet their money on 54-year-old Xi Jinping (
This would put him on track to take over the presidency along with other key positions from Hu in five years' time, making him the world's second-most powerful man by mid-2013.
There are emerging signs already that Xi is on the way to greater things. He heads the CCP secretariat, the central committee's "front office," a position of unique value in creating personal networks.
"The one who is in charge of party affairs is the heir ... the one who will take over from Hu Jintao," said Zhang Xin (
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