US Democrat presidential candidate John Edwards said that his financial disadvantage against Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama would be quickly overcome if he were to pull off a victory in the Iowa presidential caucuses on Thursday.
"It's just reality that if you win the Iowa caucuses, the money pours in," Edwards said in an interview on Sunday. "It's almost like you cannot process it because it comes in so fast. There will be plenty of money to run the campaign."
After months of being seemingly stuck in third place in most polls in the Democratic presidential field, Edwards has climbed into a virtual tie in recent surveys and has drawn large, enthusiastic crowds on a well-trod route through the state since his second-place finish here in 2004.
The former representative, restrained from using his personal fortune by his decision to accept public campaign financing, has raised far less money and runs a smaller organization in Iowa than his chief rivals for the Democratic nomination.
No matter, he says. The presidential nomination contests are so compressed this time -- "bam, bam, bam" -- that strong early showings should be rewarded nationally, and a nominee produced in short order.
"The message will get heard," he said. "If you win the Iowa caucuses, you are going to be heard very loudly and clearly in these other places."
The Thursday caucuses in the rural, midwestern state of Iowa are the crucial first contest in political parties' state-by-state process of selecting presidential nominees. Candidates who do well in the caucuses, and in the New Hampshire primary five days later, can gain momentum and media attention, establishing themselves as front-runners. Those who do poorly often decide to drop out of the race.
The caucuses -- simultaneous meetings held at 1,784 locations statewide -- will begin the process of selecting delegates to the parties' national presidential nominating conventions in August and September.
But the nominees could be apparent well before then based on the number of delegates amassed in the primaries and caucuses. The presidential election is in November.
Mark Longabaugh, who did some campaign work for Richard Gephardt in New Hampshire in 1988 and Bill Bradley in 2000, said the squeezed primary calendar means "the dynamic is dramatically different than in the past," with less time for candidates to recover from an early setback.
He noted the usual gap of at least eight days between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is down to five days this time.
In 2000, Bradley was soundly beaten in Iowa but was able to boost his poll standings in New Hampshire by up to 10 points, making that race close, said Longabaugh.
"I can't imagine many people will be able to pull that off this year," he said.
Edwards claims he has s put a "terrific" organization on the ground in New Hampshire. "We have people up there every week making thousands and thousands of phone calls."
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, agreed.
"He's invested more resources in New Hampshire, he has more people on the ground," Scala said. "If he wins Iowa, he could gain some momentum here. He's put some roots here."
Edwards' prediction that an Iowa win would spur donations is echoed by his adviser Joe Trippi, who has estimated US$1 million a day could come in as a result. Edwards had raised US$30 million by the end of September, well behind Obama and Clinton, when he decided to seek public financing. He has been certified to get nearly US$9 million in public funds.
Even so, Edwards argues that the aura of a winner will be worth more than cash after Iowa.
"I don't think it's money-driven at that point," he said. "If you've been successful in Iowa, you've been successful. Free media ... will overwhelm anything anybody spends."
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