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ANALYSIS: Is Pakistan turning into next Iraq?

The assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has pitched Pakistan into a political freefall and raised fears that increasingly bitter divisions in the society are turning the country into another Iraq.

Citizens blame the deepening turmoil on President Pervez Musharraf and his US-backed crackdown on Islamic extremists. Overwhelmingly poor and more concerned with survival than anti-Western terrorism, most crave stability above all, and many believe things will only get better if Musharraf resigns.

"The government of Musharraf has created an Afghanistan and Iraq-like situation in our country," said Zaheer Ahmad, 47, who works at a private clinic in Multan. "I don't know who killed Benazir Bhutto. But I do know that it is the result of Musharraf's wrong and bad policies."

While many Pakistanis want him gone, there is no consensus on who could replace Musharraf -- or whether anyone can unify the country's bickering political factions.

The suicide attack that killed Bhutto on Thursday has unleashed a maelstrom of anger among her supporters and three days of unrest have left more than 40 dead and tens of millions of dollars in damage. In some cities, security forces are now authorized to shoot rioters on sight.

Bhutto's killing has also deepened the sense that the rule of law, let alone prospects for democracy after years of authoritarian rule under Musharraf, are now in danger.

She was the leader of the biggest secular political party and lionized by the rural poor.

Although her strongest support came from her home province of Sindh, she was perhaps unique in Pakistan for having national appeal across ethnic and religious divides, including among the moderate Muslim majority and minority Christians and Hindus.

There is an alarming gap between Pakistan's rich elite -- which she belonged to -- and the majority of the 160 million people with a per capita annual income of just US$720.

Critics derided her a political opportunist, tainted by corruption allegations during her two terms in office. Nevertheless, her passing has left a vacuum in Pakistani politics.

The most natural successor to Bhutto is former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who leads the other main opposition party.

Sharif is more conservative than Bhutto and rose to political prominence under a former military regime. It appears very unlikely he could coexist with Musharraf, who toppled him in a 1999 coup.

He has demanded Musharraf's resignation and has vowed to take vengeance against the "rulers" for Bhutto's killing.

The US is pressing for Jan. 8 parliamentary elections to be held on time, but few in Pakistan believe that is a panacea for the current crisis.

"The most important question in Pakistan's politics is how to overcome the menace of religious extremists who want to impose themselves on society by force," journalism professor Mehdi Hasan said. "Unless there is a consensus on that, holding elections and democracy cannot change the situation in Pakistan."

Musharraf's Western allies have supported his leadership as a stabilizing force because of his control of the powerful military and his willingness to take on Islamic extremists. But he is now a divisive figure among his countrymen, unlikely to achieve national reconciliation.

He has largely alienated mainstream secular parties, whose support he needs to fight militancy. And with violence skyrocketing, he has lost the confidence of the public.
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