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Ahmadinejad may be gaining power but alienating base

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have gained greater powers in the short term by replacing Iran's top nuclear negotiator, but the move has alienated even conservatives who were once his supporters in a new weakening of his support at home.

The surprise resignation of Ali Larijani over the weekend has been widely interpreted as a victory for Ahmadinejad that could bring about an even tougher stance in ongoing nuclear talks with the West.

The move adds to questions over how much support Ahmadinejad has from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the country's often murky internal politics. Larijani reported directly to Khamenei, who has final say in all state issues, and his replacement could not have occurred without Khamenei's consent.

But that consent may not be a sign of the supreme leader's backing for the controversial Ahmadinejad. Some observers said Khamenei, who has been silent over the changes, may be giving the president more leeway on the nuclear dossier to be in a better position to reel him in if his policies lead to a new round of UN sanctions on Iran.

"Larijani's replacement leaves no pretext for Ahmadinejad to justify his failures in the future. His failures, despite being given a free hand, will only facilitate his humiliating exit from Iranian politics," political analyst Hamid Reza Shokouhi said.

Critics have charged that Ahmadinejad has not fulfilled promises to fix Iran's ailing economy and that his firebrand rhetoric has unnecessarily worsened the standoff with the West.

Larijani's removal could further isolate him. Larijani is a conservative figure but was considered more moderate than Ahmadinejad within Iran's hardline camp. Larijani backed Iran's uranium enrichment program -- which the UN has demanded be suspended -- but favored diplomacy to resolve the standoff and he negotiated a deal with the UN nuclear watchdog agency to explain outstanding questions over the nuclear program.

On the other hand, Ahmadinejad has vowed not to suspend uranium enrichment even for a single minute.

Larijani's successor as top nuclear negotiator is Saeed Jalili, a little-known deputy foreign minister for European and US affairs known for his loyalty to and praise for Ahmadinejad.

"In the short term, Larijani's resignation will boost Ahmadinejad," Shokouhi said. "In the long term, Ahmadinejad will be the loser because he has increasingly provoked the hatred of reformers and alienated conservatives."
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