US forces in Iraq should be reduced significantly, according to a new study on Iraq's security forces that inflamed debate in Congress on how quickly that can happen without hurling the country into chaos.
The report, authored by a 20-member panel comprised mostly of retired senior military and police officers and led by retired General James Jones, said the massive deployment of US forces and sprawl of US-run facilities in and around Baghdad has given Iraqis the impression that Americans are an occupying, permanent force.
Accordingly, the panel said the Iraqis should assume more control of its security and US forces should step back, emboldening Democrats who want troop withdrawals to start this fall.
General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, said he will recommend to Congress on Monday a gradual reduction of forces beginning in the spring and acknowledged that the slow pace of political solutions in Baghdad had frustrated him, the Boston Globe reported.
"Based on the progress our forces are achieving, I expect to be able to recommend that some of our forces will be redeployed without replacement," Petraeus said in a series of e-mails, according to a report in yesterday's edition of the paper. "That will, over time, reduce the total number of troops in Iraq. The process will take time, but we want to be sure to maintain the security gains that coalition and Iraqi forces have worked so hard to achieve."
The force reduction Petraeus expected would come as the five additional brigades deployed to Iraq as part of the current increase in troops ended their tours of duty over the spring and summer and were not replaced, the Globe reported.
Petraeus said he does not envision the need to send more troops. "In fact, we are in the process of doing the `battlefield geometry' to determine the way ahead as the surge of forces inevitably runs its course," he said in the interview.
Administration officials said Petraeus and the American ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, recommended to President George W. Bush that he stand by his current war strategy and that Bush was unlikely to order more than a symbolic reduction in troops by year's end.
The report from the group led by Jones, a former Marine Corps commandant, contended that "significant reductions, consolidations and realignments would appear to be possible and prudent."
The recommendation echoed previous independent assessments on the war, including the high-profile Iraq Study Group that said the combat mission could be transferred to the Iraqis by early next year. But the burning question, left mostly unanswered by the panel, was precisely when Iraqi security units could take control and US troops could leave.
The study concluded only that the Iraqis could not assume control of the country without US help in the next 12 to 18 months.
"We need to start transitioning to an Iraqi lead, no matter the timeframe," said retired Army General George Joulwan, a panel member and former NATO commander.
"I think the signs are there to do that, and we have to reduce that dependency," he added in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The study sparked ongoing debate among committee members on whether to pass legislation ordering troops home.
Democrats want a firm deadline to pressure Iraqi leaders into taking more control. Most Republicans have so far balked at the suggestion, saying military commanders should make the decision.
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