Al-Qaeda is using its growing strength in Pakistan and Iraq to plot attacks on US soil, heightening the terror threat facing the US over the next few years, US intelligence agencies say.
At the same time, intelligence analysts worry that international cooperation against terrorism will be hard to sustain as memories of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the US fade and the nations' views diverge on what the real threat is.
In the National Intelligence Estimate prepared for US President George W. Bush and other top policymakers, analysts laid out a range of dangers -- al-Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah, non-Muslim radical groups -- that pose a "persistent and evolving threat" to the country over the next three years.
The findings focused most heavily on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, which was judged to remain the most serious threat to the US. The group's affiliate in Iraq, which has not yet posed a direct threat to US soil, could do just that, the report concluded. Al-Qaeda in Iraq threatened to attack the US in a Web statement last September.
National Intelligence Council Chairman Thomas Fingar warned that the group's operatives in Iraq are getting portable, firsthand experience in covert communications, smuggling, improvised explosive devices, understanding US military tactics and more.
The Iraqi affiliate also helps al-Qaeda more broadly as it tries to energize Sunni Muslim extremists around the globe, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives -- "including for homeland attacks," according to a declassified summary of the report's main findings.
In addition, analysts stressed the importance of al-Qaeda's increasingly comfortable hideout in Pakistan that has resulted from a hands-off accord between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and tribal leaders along the Afghan border. That 10-month-old deal, which has unraveled in recent days, gave al-Qaeda new opportunities to set up compounds for terror training, improve its international communications with associates and bolster its operations.
The assessment shows how the threat has changed.
Two years ago, the intelligence agencies considered al-Qaeda's various "franchises" decentralized offshootswith bin Laden mostly providing ideological direction.
Fingar said his experts believe bin Laden and his top deputy are hiding in Pakistan. "There is no question that the ungoverned character of the space is a major factor in the Taliban's and al-Qaeda's and other extremist groups' ability to hide -- hide in plain sight," he said.
National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the US government. These documents reflect the consensus long-term thinking of top intelligence analysts.
Tuesday's publicly disclosed judgments are part of a more expansive, still-classified document, approved by the heads of all 16 intelligence agencies on June 21.
Analysts, who concluded the US now faces a "heightened threat environment," painted an increasingly familiar picture of al-Qaeda: A group focused on high-profile attacks against political, economic and infrastructure targets, while striving to cause mass casualties and dramatic destruction.
FBI Deputy Director John Pistole said the bureau does not know of any al-Qaeda cells in the US, although his agents continue investigating such questions. The estimate said international counterterror efforts since 2001 have hampered al-Qaeda's ability to attack the US again, while also convincing terror groups that US soil is a tougher target.
Charles Allen, the Department of Homeland Security's top intelligence official, said the department is not changing the nation's threat level, which remains at yellow, or "elevated," the middle of a five-point scale. Airlines remain one step higher, at orange.
Even as authorities warn of dangers within the US, analysts concluded the threat is more severe in Europe. The problem could touch the US directly, Fingar noted, because of the ease of travel between Europe and the US.
The White House sought to minimize the report's worries about the future of international counterterrorist cooperation. Bush's homeland security adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, said the administration is not worried about being abandoned by allies.
The Bush administration also brushed off critics who say the administration released the intelligence estimate now to help its case as the Senate debates whether to withdraw troops from Iraq. White House press secretary Tony Snow said critics are "engaged in a little selective hearing ... to shape the story in their own political ways."
Meanwhile, Democrats said that the report was proof that US anti-terrorism effort is being drained by the Iraq war.
As the sun sets on another scorching Yangon day, the hot and bothered descend on the Myanmar city’s parks, the coolest place to spend an evening during yet another power blackout. A wave of exceptionally hot weather has blasted Southeast Asia this week, sending the mercury to 45°C and prompting thousands of schools to suspend in-person classes. Even before the chaos and conflict unleashed by the military’s 2021 coup, Myanmar’s creaky and outdated electricity grid struggled to keep fans whirling and air conditioners humming during the hot season. Now, infrastructure attacks and dwindling offshore gas reserves mean those who cannot afford expensive diesel
Does Argentine President Javier Milei communicate with a ghost dog whose death he refuses to accept? Forced to respond to questions about his mental health, the president’s office has lashed out at “disrespectful” speculation. Twice this week, presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni was asked about Milei’s English Mastiff, Conan, said to have died seven years ago. Milei, 53, had Conan cloned, and today is believed to own four copies he refers to as “four-legged children.” Or is it five? In an interview with CNN this month, Milei referred to his five dogs, whose faces and names he had engraved on the presidential baton. Conan,
Le Tuan Binh keeps his Moroccan soldier father’s tombstone at his village home north of Hanoi, a treasured reminder of a man whose community in Vietnam has been largely forgotten. Mzid Ben Ali, or “Mohammed” as Binh calls him, was one of tens of thousands of North Africans who served in the French army as it battled to maintain its colonial rule of Indochina. He fought for France against the Viet Minh independence movement in the 1950s, before leaving the military — as either a defector or a captive — and making a life for himself in Vietnam. “It’s very emotional for me,”
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Committee is to gather in July for a key meeting known as a plenum, the third since the body of elite decisionmakers was elected in 2022, focusing on reforms amid “challenges” at home and complexities broad. Plenums are important events on China’s political calendar that require the attendance of all of the Central Committee, comprising 205 members and 171 alternate members with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) at the helm. The Central Committee typically holds seven plenums between party congresses, which are held once every five years. The current central committee members were elected at the