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Poll shows sharp drop in support for Abe

Support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has dipped following scandals ranging from pension system errors to the suicide of a Cabinet minister linked to corruption, a newspaper poll said yesterday.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said support for Abe's Cabinet fell to 32.9 percent in a telephone survey of 1,035 people conducted from Tuesday to Thursday.

The figure had risen slightly to 49.6 percent in a similar poll conducted last month, but the Yomiuri cautioned against comparing the two polls too readily as previous surveys had been conducted through face-to-face interviews.

Still, the paper said that Abe's support rate appears to have fallen in the wake of problems involving missing pension records and the suicide of scandal-tainted agriculture minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka.

The Cabinet's disapproval rate stood at 53.7 percent in the Yomiuri's latest poll, compared with 36.8 percent in the May 19 to May 20 survey, the paper said.

Previous polls had already shown that Abe's support is at its lowest levels since he took office last September, raising chances that his ruling coalition could lose an upper house election next month.

Abe would not automatically have to resign if his coalition lost its majority in the upper house, and if the ruling camp fell short by a few seats they would likely woo independents or members of tiny parties to keep control of the chamber.

But a big loss would mean the ruling bloc would be unable to enact legislation, threatening political paralysis and prompting calls for Abe to resign or even call a lower house snap election.

"It's looking very tough," said Hidenori Suezawa, a bond strategist who analyzes politics at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"If they lose by just a few seats, they can tie up with the People's New Party," he said, referring to a tiny party formed by lawmakers kicked out by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 2005 for opposing reform.

"But if it's a big loss, then the issue of the Cabinet's responsibility will come up ... and Abe might have to either resign or call a snap lower house election," he said.

Voters appear most outraged at the failure of a government agency to keep track of millions of premium payments, bungling that could mean retirees are getting short-changed.
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