Fidel Castro's enemies in exile have long predicted that the end of his reign in Cuba would bring dancing in the streets, a mass exodus and a rapid transition to a US-style democracy and market economy.
But almost six months after Castro stepped aside due to illness, the transition has occurred -- with none of those changes. Cubans are calmly going about their business. There has been no northbound rush of migrants and no signs of impending policy shifts.
Even if Castro recovers fully and returns to public life, officials no longer insist he will return to power.
Cuban officials have pulled off what their enemies have long said would be impossible: Building a post-Castro communist system.
About the only thing different in Cuba is that its government, instead of being led by a single person, is handled by a group. Raul Castro heads a collective leadership guided by the same Communist Party his older brother extolled during a nearly half-century in power.
"These guys know what they are doing. They are prepared to lead Cuba without Fidel," said Marifeli Perez-Stable of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "The country, in the short run, is not going to collapse."
A senior US intelligence official said earlier this month that Raul Castro has the support and respect of military leaders critical to ensuring a leadership succession within the existing communist system.
Army Lieutenant General Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said the temporary president is firmly in control and "will likely maintain power and stability after Fidel Castro dies, at least for the short-term."
Cuban officials say no single person can replace the 80-year-old Maximum Leader, who micromanaged projects, gave marathon speeches and entertained visitors at dinners lasting until dawn.
Raul Castro, the mustachioed longtime defense minister, now greets visiting dignitaries and military parades. But he hasn't kept his brother's long hours and reserves his evenings for family.
"The only substitute for Fidel can be the Communist Party of Cuba," the 75-year-old Raul Castro told university students last month.
The most visible official after Raul is Vice President Carlos Lage, who favors a white guayabera dress shirt and is said to drive himself around in a boxy little Russian Lada sedan. He exercises wide control over government administration, much like a prime minister.
Lage recently represented Cuba at Bolivia's constitutional convention and presidential inaugurations in Colombia and Ecuador. When Fidel ceded power in July, he gave Lage sole responsibility for his "energy revolution," the renovation of the country's antiquated electrical grid that is close to Castro's heart.
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
HYPOCRISY? The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday asked whether Biden was talking about China or the US when he used the word ‘xenophobic’ US President Joe Biden on Wednesday called for a hike in steel tariffs on China, accusing Beijing of cheating as he spoke at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Biden accused China of xenophobia, too, in a speech to union members in Pittsburgh. “They’re not competing, they’re cheating. They’re cheating and we’ve seen the damage here in America,” Biden said. Chinese steel companies “don’t need to worry about making a profit because the Chinese government is subsidizing them so heavily,” he said. Biden said he had called for the US Trade Representative to triple the tariff rates for Chinese steel and aluminum if Beijing was
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese