Philippine President Gloria Arroyo has weathered the storm after a tumultuous week which began with damaging cabinet defections and ended with a mass rally calling for her resignation over a political scandal, analysts said yesterday.
Various opposition groups mustered their forces to bring an estimated 30,000-35,000 onto the streets of Manila's Makati financial district on Wednesday -- but this was short of the 50,000 they had originally promised.
A defiant Arroyo is refusing to resign despite opposition allegations that she cheated to win the May 2004 elections. She denies the claim and says she is happy to face an impeachment motion filed in the legislature.
"I think the worst is over if the opposition could only muster so much. There is no snowballing effect," said Victor Abola, senior economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
Abola said there was little sign of a repeat of the army-backed mass protests that toppled dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and corruption-tainted president Joseph Estrada in 2001.
"It looks like yesterday's rally, though exceptionally well produced, did not get the numbers. It has somehow eased the uncertainty that Mrs. Arroyo would just walk away because of a mass uprising," said Nestor Aguila, president of DA Market Securities.
Government supporters were organizing a pro-Arroyo rally of their own on Saturday even as security forces braced for an even bigger anti-Arroyo protest when she makes her annual speech to Congress on July 25.
Wednesday's rally brought together various factions from leftists to old Marcos and Estrada followers to disgruntled former Arroyo allies, all demanding that she step down.
Roberto de Ocampo, president of the Asian Institute of Management, said anti-Arroyo groups would likely continue mounting such protests in the future.
But they are unlikely to get any wider support, de Ocampo said, noting that the influential Catholic bishops and respected former president Corazon Aquino did not join Wednesday's rally.
"Most of [the protesters] are extremists and most of us would prefer to go the legal route and are a little bit reluctant to open the doors to extremists if there are other avenues available," de Ocampo said.
Arroyo has been under attack for weeks over allegations that she cheated in the election and that her family was involved in illegal gambling.
On July 8 her survival seemed unlikely after 10 senior officials resigned from her government, urging her to do to the same. Former president Aquino also called for her to step down and junior parties in her ruling coalition broke away from her.
But former president Fidel Ramos and her other allies in the legislature and local government threw their support behind Arroyo and the bishops declined to join the calls for her resignation.
The opposition has taken up Arroyo's challenge to have her impeached despite their earlier misgivings that Arroyo allies who control the legislature could kill such a complaint.
Arroyo ally Senator Richard Gordon was encouraged by the move away from street protests to legal processes.
"Divisions are not necessarily bad. There is argumentation today. These are the sounds of democracy. We are willing to listen to each other and not just shout. It should be issue-based," he said in a television interview.
"There is a process and finally the opposition is going through the process. They are preparing the articles of impeachment," he added.
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