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UK poll: Labor's hopes for re-election lifted

British Prime Minister Tony Blair is back on course for a hefty election victory as disgruntled Labor supporters are starting to rally around, according to a new poll carried out for the Observer newspaper.

The Mori poll, putting Labor seven points ahead among those certain to vote, will be seen as evidence of a "Brown bounce," following the return of the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to the campaign's center stage.

The improvement in Labor's fortunes reflects a greater willingness among Labor supporters to turn out and vote. But continuing anxiety over voter volatility was revealed Saturday when Peter Hain, the Leader of the House of Commons, launched a fierce attack on self-indulgent "dinner party critics" among the liberal middle classes tempted to use the ballot box to punish Blair. He said that, by doing so, they would only hurt the poorest dependent on a Labor victory.

The prime minister had "got the message" about their displeasure, he said, arguing that those who still disagreed over Iraq or civil liberties should re-open the arguments after the election.

"There's now a kind of dinner party critics who quaff shiraz or chardonnay and just sneeringly say, `You are no different from the Tories [the Conservatives],'" he said. "Most of the people in this category are pretty comfortably off: it's not going to be the end of the world if they get a Tory government. In a working-class constituency like mine, this is a lifeline. It's not a luxury."

Today's poll, which projects a commanding majority of 134 for Blair and lets Conservative party leader Michael Howard recapture just two seats, will focus attention on the power of the Blair-Brown partnership.

A focus group specially commissioned for The Observer reveals that Blair has suffered badly from fading trust, while Brown is regarded as a "safe pair of hands," reliable, straightforward and the real power behind the throne, which helps to explain why he has been recalled.

The two men will campaign jointly for the next three days on the twin issues of education and the economy, launching the manifesto chapters dealing with both today. Teachers will be wooed with promises of better classroom discipline, tough penalties for carrying knives in schools and a culture of "respect" for their profession, in contrast to past pledges to root out weak teachers.

The pair will launch an economy pledge card, promising to maintain low inflation and interest rates and spread prosperity to all -- although a pledge not to raise income taxes is likely to wait until the full manifesto is launched on Wednesday.

Brown was prevailed on to take a much bigger role in the campaign after Blair dropped threats to sack him after the election.
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