An unexplained and unprecedented rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere two years running has raised fears that the world may be on the brink of runaway global warming.
Scientists are baffled why the quantity of the main greenhouse gas has leapt in a two-year period and are concerned that the Earth's natural systems are no longer able to absorb as much as in the past.
The findings will be discussed tomorrow by the government's chief scientist, David King, at the annual Greenpeace business lecture.
Measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere have been continuous for almost 50 years at Mauna Loa Observatory, 3,658m up a mountain in Hawaii, regarded as far enough away from any carbon dioxide source to be a reliable measuring point.
In recent decades CO2 increased on average by 1.5 parts per million (ppm) a year because of the amount of oil, coal and gas burnt, but has now jumped to more than 2 ppm in 2002 and last year.
Above or below average rises in CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been explained in the past by natural events.
When the Pacific warms up during El Nino -- a disruptive weather pattern caused by weakening trade winds -- the amount of carbon dioxide rises dramatically because warm oceans emit CO2 rather than absorb it.
But scientists are puzzled because over the past two years, when the increases have been 2.08 ppm and 2.54 ppm respectively, there has been no El Nino.
Charles Keeling, the man who began the observations in 1958 as a young climate scientist, is now 74 and still working in the field.
He said yesterday: "The rise in the annual rate to above two parts per million for two consecutive years is a real phenomenon."
"It is possible that this is merely a reflection of natural events like previous peaks in the rate, but it is also possible that it is the beginning of a natural process unprecedented in the record," he said.
Analysts stress that it is too early to draw any long-term conclusions.
But the fear held by some scientists is that the greater than normal rises in C02 emissions mean that instead of decades to bring global warming under control we may have only a few years. At worst, the figures could be the first sign of the breakdown in the Earth's natural systems for absorbing the gas. That would herald the so-called "runaway greenhouse effect," where the planet's soaring temperature becomes impossible to contain.
Tom Burke, visiting professor at Imperial College London, and a former special adviser to the former Tory environment minister John Gummer, warned: "We're watching the clock and the clock is beginning to tick faster, like it seems to before a bomb goes off."
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