After 40 years of false starts, the international community thought it had the perfect formula for a Cyprus settlement, but the tight timetable and imposed compromises have prompted a backlash from an unexpected quarter.
Opinion polls suggest a referendum today on a hard-fought UN plan to reunify the island as a loose confederation in time for EU accession next week will be lost among Greek Cypriots, whose support foreign mediators had long taken for granted.
PHOTO: EPA
For the best part of two decades, it had been the Turkish Cypriot leader -- veteran nationalist Rauf Denktash -- who angered the international community by blocking any settlement.
Denktash still opposes the UN plan, but opinion polls in his Turkish-protected breakaway state suggest he has lost the support of his own people, who are poised to embrace the blueprint in a bid to join the European club and end years of pariah status.
By contrast, Greek Cypriots look set to follow the urging of their nationalist president Tassos Papadopoulos and vote down the plan, despite warnings from the international community that they would never be offered a better deal.
Nothing can now stop the Greek Cypriots being admitted to the EU on May 1 -- their leaders have formed the island's internationally recognized government ever since the UN first deployed peacekeepers here following communal disturbances in 1963 and 1964.
But to the barely concealed irritation of the EU, it looks almost certain to be a truncated island that is admitted, with the bloc forced to cold-shoulder the Turkish Cypriots despite their conversion to the cause of reconciliation.
A poll carried out for the state-owned Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation this week found 54 percent of Greek Cypriots said they would definitely say no to the UN plan and another 12 percent said they would probably do so.
Definite and probable support combined amounted to a paltry 18 percent.
With the gap in the polls so stark, the fading hopes of peace supporters have come to rest on a silent groundswell of support undetected by the pollsters.
But University of Cyprus political analyst Christoforos Christoforou dismissed such hopes, despite the prevailing climate of sometimes intimidatory nationalism which has largely drowned out the yes campaign.
"Of course, the nos may be over-represented in the polls for those reasons, but the margin is just too big for that sort of factor to affect the final outcome," he said. "All this outside pressure has just been counterproductive. It was always going to spark a backlash."
Ironically, it was the Greek Cypriot president who first appealed to the international community to have one last go at brokering a settlement late last year.
But when the UN and the EU eventually came up with a final blueprint, he rejected it in an emotional address to the nation in which he accused the foreign mediators of seeking to foist it on the majority community.
"It appears there is an attempt to influence the vote of the people of Cyprus," charged government spokesman Kypros Chrysostomides, after a raft of EU officials accused Papadopoulos of "cheating" them with his about-face on a settlement.
"We have said that any pressure or blackmail will not be accepted by the Greek Cypriot people," said Andros Kyprianou, spokesman for the communist AKEL, Cyprus' largest party.
Greek Cypriot nationalists from both left and right have always had a strong sense of antagonism toward what they perceive as meddling, particularly by the West.
But the sheer ferocity of the backlash from a community which for so long championed a UN settlement has shocked even its longstanding friends.
"There is nothing unusual about people resenting being told what to do by foreigners," one diplomat said. "What is unusual is to keep relevant information away from the public ... and it should be relevant that people whose help they have asked for for the past 30 years think it's a balanced plan which deserves their support."
The collapse of the Swiss Birch glacier serves as a chilling warning of the escalating dangers faced by communities worldwide living under the shadow of fragile ice, particularly in Asia, experts said. Footage of the collapse on Wednesday showed a huge cloud of ice and rubble hurtling down the mountainside into the hamlet of Blatten. Swiss Development Cooperation disaster risk reduction adviser Ali Neumann said that while the role of climate change in the case of Blatten “still needs to be investigated,” the wider impacts were clear on the cryosphere — the part of the world covered by frozen water. “Climate change and
Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election today between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future. The winner would succeed Polish President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome would determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos would be released when polls close today at 9pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected tomorrow. Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the
DENIAL: Musk said that the ‘New York Times was lying their ass off,’ after it reported he used so much drugs that he developed bladder problems Elon Musk on Saturday denied a report that he used ketamine and other drugs extensively last year on the US presidential campaign trail. The New York Times on Friday reported that the billionaire adviser to US President Donald Trump used so much ketamine, a powerful anesthetic, that he developed bladder problems. The newspaper said the world’s richest person also took ecstasy and mushrooms, and traveled with a pill box last year, adding that it was not known whether Musk also took drugs while heading the so-called US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) after Trump took power in January. In a
It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all. Astronomers on Monday said that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That is essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time. “As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated,” the Finnish-led team wrote in a study appearing in Nature Astronomy. While good news for the Milky Way galaxy, the latest forecast might be moot